ISLAMABAD, July 16 - Pakistan has expressed deep concern that attacks on Saudi Arabia by Yemen’s Houthi movement this week could drag Islamabad deeper into a regional conflict, undermining its capacity to act as a neutral intermediary between the United States and Iran.
The country’s unease follows a surge in cross-border fire after the Houthis said Saudi forces had bombed an airport under their control. The missile strikes punctured a four-year truce but, to date, have been confined to a single episode. Still, Pakistani officials and regional analysts say the incident has intensified Islamabad’s frustrations with Iran and created fresh diplomatic and strategic complications.
Pakistan, which last month helped negotiate an interim understanding between Washington and Tehran, also concluded a mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia last year. Under that pact, thousands of Pakistani troops have been stationed in the kingdom, and Islamabad has provided a squadron of fighter jets to Saudi forces. Those commitments now sharpen the dilemma facing Pakistani decision-makers, who are weighing the demands of treaty obligations against efforts to preserve diplomatic channels with Iran.
"Our top civil and military leaders have conveyed to Iran at the highest level that the attacks on Saudi Arabia are attacks on Pakistan," a Pakistani official told Reuters. "It is our red line." The official spoke on condition of anonymity, as did several other people interviewed for this article, because they were not authorised to speak publicly.
For Pakistan, the scale of the threat now appears distinct from the Iranian missile strikes earlier this year that had already provoked anger in Islamabad. Analysts and officials say the Houthi involvement raises a more acute prospect of direct encounters with forces stationed near the Saudi-Yemen frontier: "Pakistan wasn’t anticipating that the tensions will rise so suddenly," said Muhammad Amir Rana, a Pakistani security analyst.
Two Pakistani officials confirmed that troops are deployed near the Saudi border with Yemen, increasing the potential for Pakistani soldiers to be exposed to any further cross-border escalation. The geographic proximity of those deployments has prompted particular concern in Islamabad because an expanded Houthi campaign could directly threaten Saudi facilities and compel Saudi leaders to invoke mutual defence commitments that might require a Pakistani military response.
Beyond the immediate security calculus, Pakistani officials are also watching developments for their potential to disrupt commercial shipping in the Red Sea - a critical artery for global trade and for Pakistan’s energy and import supply chains. Analysts warn that a broader naval and aerial confrontation could imperil maritime traffic and complicate the movement of oil and other goods that Pakistan relies upon.
Retired Pakistani general Ghulam Mustafa described the current posture in Islamabad as cautious engagement: "Pakistan’s top leaders are still engaged in appeasing all stakeholders." He added a caveat that reflects official concern: "if the Houthis expand the radius of their attacks in Saudi Arabia."
Mounting diplomatic apprehension
Officials in Islamabad say they are closely monitoring internal dynamics inside Iran. Two government sources indicated that growing divisions among Iran’s civilian and political leadership - named by one Pakistani official as including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf - are being contrasted with the positions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. "The military seems to be dominating the decision making in Iran," said Muhammad Ali, a Pakistani defence analyst, a view which Pakistani officials said is increasingly recognised in Islamabad.
The heightened tensions appear to have affected routine diplomatic engagements between the two capitals. Pakistani officials said an Iranian delegation led by Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni was due to visit Islamabad earlier in the week but that the trip was postponed and the delegation arrived two days later than planned, on Wednesday. The visit was expected to include discussions related to the U.S.-Iran interim agreement.
Pakistan’s foreign ministry and the military media wing did not immediately reply to requests for comment. In a scheduled briefing on Thursday, foreign ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi said Pakistan was urging restraint across the region: he said Pakistan calls "on all parties to exercise maximum restraint" and that "there is no alternative to sustained engagement, dialogue, and diplomacy."
Balancing defence ties and economic vulnerability
As Pakistan pursues a higher-profile regional role, the choices it confronts grow more complex. When Islamabad and Riyadh announced their defence agreement last September, many in the region interpreted it as a sign of Gulf states seeking alternatives to traditional security partnerships. For Pakistan, the pact has meant a higher degree of operational exposure alongside closer strategic alignment with Saudi Arabia.
At the same time, Pakistan remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern countries for energy supplies. Earlier disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have already affected Pakistan’s fuel import routes and prompted emergency domestic measures, including earlier business closures to head off a potential shortage. Officials and analysts say Pakistan’s mediation efforts between Washington and Tehran have been driven in part by a desire to stabilise those supply lines as much as by a pursuit of diplomatic influence.
One Pakistani official involved in the mediation effort sought to underscore the government’s ongoing commitment: "Yes, there is frustration, but that doesn’t mean that we are abandoning this project," the official said. "We have invested a lot in it, and we have an interest in keeping it afloat." Another source close to the mediation added: "It’s in everyone’s best interest for the war to end. But if Saudi calls us in, we will stand by them and there is no doubt about that."
Outlook and implications
For now, Islamabad appears to be pursuing a dual approach - maintaining defence obligations to Saudi Arabia while attempting to preserve diplomatic channels with Iran and the United States. Pakistani leaders are navigating an immediate risk of escalation along the Saudi-Yemen frontier while also managing longer-term economic vulnerabilities tied to regional stability and maritime trade.
How events unfold will depend largely on whether the Houthis broaden their operations and whether Saudi Arabia responds in a manner that deepens the conflict. Until then, Islamabad’s posture is constrained by its existing military deployments, its economic reliance on Gulf energy, and its interest in keeping a delicate mediation effort alive.