Piper Sandler initiated coverage of SpaceX at Neutral, assigning a $156 price target and warning of idiosyncratic, near-term constraints even as it maintains a constructive view over multiple years.
Analyst Alexander Potter led the coverage, issuing concurrent ratings on peers in the sector: AST SpaceMobile received an Overweight rating, while Rocket Lab was started at Neutral.
The note explains that while Piper Sandler is "comfortable underwriting the multi-year thesis" for SpaceX - citing the analyst team's long experience covering Tesla - the firm is starting coverage with a Neutral rating because it anticipates several company-specific near-term obstacles that could limit short-term upside. Among those factors are staged lockup expirations and continued uncertainty surrounding the prospects of a potential acquisition by Tesla.
Piper Sandler also emphasized that convincing the market on SpaceX's plan to operate orbital AI datacenters will require time. In the interim, the firm projects that capital expenditures tied to that strategy will be substantial, saying capex will "easily consume 10s (if not 100s) of billions of USD annually."
The $156 price target reflects a valuation approach of 20x 2031 EV/EBITDA, discounted at a 15% rate.
On competitive positioning, Piper Sandler described SpaceX and Rocket Lab as the Neutral-rated rocket builders likely best positioned over a multi-year horizon, noting the challenges associated with building reusable rockets and the cost advantages that can come from vertical integration.
Nevertheless, the firm cautioned that neither SpaceX nor Rocket Lab appears inexpensive on a one-year view, and for that reason it favors AST SpaceMobile for nearer-term investors because AST presents a more palatable valuation and a clearer path to EBITDA improvement.
Piper Sandler attached a $100 price target to AST SpaceMobile and an $83 target to Rocket Lab.
Contextual note: The coverage launch bundles a multi-year conviction around reusable launch capabilities and vertical integration with an explicit near-term caution tied to lockup schedules, M&A uncertainty, and capital intensity needed to pursue ambitious propositions such as orbital AI datacenters.