SpaceX (SPCX) has already traded below its IPO price of $135 - closing the gap with a trade at $134.91 on Jul 16 - and investors are facing what may be the largest single lockup event the market has seen. The company has two separate lockup tranches tied to its initial quarterly earnings report, which is expected in early August 2026. Together they represent a potential unlocking of nearly $185 billion in shares if both tranches are released.
Two separate tranches, one common trigger
The first tranche, comprised of 911.5 million shares and valued at approximately $123 billion at current price levels, will unlock unconditionally two trading days after the debut quarterly report is released. This tranche includes employee holdings and early investor positions and does not depend on any price threshold.
The second tranche consists of 455.8 million shares, with an estimated value near $62 billion. That block is subject to a price-contingent condition: the stock must trade at $175.50 or higher for 5 of the 10 consecutive trading days that run through the earnings date for that tranche to become eligible to trade.
Where the stock stands relative to the price trigger
As of July 15, SpaceX closed at $135.27, which sits about 23% below the $175.50 threshold required to free the conditional tranche. The shares are roughly 33% below their post-IPO record close and trade at a valuation near 49 times expected revenue, which leaves the second tranche effectively locked at present market levels. However, should the company report results that spark a significant rally, the conditional threshold would become relevant.
Why the unconditional tranche matters most
The unconditional opening of 911.5 million shares represents the primary near-term supply risk. At current prices that tranche equates to roughly $123 billion of potential selling pressure appearing in a concentrated window. For perspective, the IPO itself raised $75 billion, making the upcoming unconditional unlock about 64% larger than the offering.
Market history cited in available data indicates companies that fall below their IPO price within the first two months show mixed outcomes: those that dipped below had a median subsequent gain of 61% compared with 112% for companies that did not. That historical information provides context but does not dictate outcomes for this specific event.
Competing narratives among investors
On the downside, the stock's breach of IPO price prior to the lockup expiration is often viewed as an unfavorable sign. Early investors and employees who hold shares from pre-IPO allocations have a clear financial incentive to realize gains, and even a partial liquidation of the roughly $123 billion tranche could exert substantial pressure on the market for the shares.
Conversely, not all holders are expected to sell. Long-term investors and substantial non-lockup positions, including those held by the company's leadership, may remain in place. Additionally, available historical data suggests a median rebound for firms that underperform early on, and a positive first-quarter report could act as a catalyst that alters market sentiment before the unlock window.
Key dates and near-term considerations
- Early August 2026 - The company's first quarterly report is expected to be released; the unconditional tranche becomes tradable two trading days after that report.
- Now through the earnings release - Market participants will watch whether SPCX can recover and sustain a price at or above $175.50 for 5 of 10 trading days to determine whether the conditional ~455.8 million-share tranche (~$62 billion) will become eligible.
These milestones will shape supply-demand dynamics in the near term and are likely to draw close attention from market participants across the aerospace and financial sectors. Given the scale of the unconditional unlock, the early August window represents the principal risk to current liquidity and price levels.