Options market pricing points to an expected share-price swing of roughly 4% for Lockheed Martin Corp. when the aerospace and defense contractor releases quarterly results on July 23 before the market opens. That implied move comes from options data reported by Bloomberg.
Looking back at recent earnings reactions, the company’s stock has tended to outperform the magnitude forecast by options. In six of the last eight quarterly announcements, the actual percentage change in the share price was larger than the options-implied move.
Specific recent instances underline the divergence between implied and realized volatility. The most recent release on April 23 carried an implied move of 4.8%, while the stock declined 13.3% that day. In the January release earlier this year, the shares rose 6.2% versus an implied move of 3.5%.
Other past results show a mixed pattern. In October 2025 the shares fell 2.8% despite an implied move of 4.4%, and three months prior, in July 2025, the stock dropped 13.3% against a 4.4% implied move. April 2025 produced a 2.8% decline compared with a 4.0% implied move, and in January 2025 the stock fell 6.7% while options pointed to a 3.8% move.
Going further back, the October 2024 announcement saw a 5.5% decline against an implied move of 3.3%, and the July 2024 report produced an 8.1% gain compared with a 2.7% implied move. These outcomes illustrate that, across these earnings events, realized price swings have frequently exceeded the expectations embedded in options prices.
For market participants - including equity investors and derivatives traders - the disparity between implied and realized moves presents both a challenge and an input for risk management. The options market is signaling a moderate move ahead of the July 23 report, but historical precedent shows the stock can and has moved by multiples of those expectations on a reporting day.
What to watch
- The options-implied move ahead of the July 23 earnings release, reported at about 4%.
- Historical tendency for actual earnings-day moves to exceed options-implied moves in six of the last eight reports.
- Implications for market participants in the defense sector and broader equity and derivatives markets.