SYDNEY - For the first time since its founding, the far-right populist party One Nation has overtaken the ruling centre-left Labor party in primary support in a national opinion poll, according to results published this week. The shift follows public reaction to the governments budget measures introduced earlier in May.
The Redbridge Group and Accent Research poll showed primary backing for One Nation rose by four percentage points from the prior month to 31%. By contrast, Labors primary support declined by three points to 28%, while the conservative coalition opposition slipped two points to 20%.
The survey, conducted between May 25 and May 28 among 1,005 voters and carrying a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points, came after the governments May 12 budget implemented what the poll description characterised as the largest changes to property taxes in decades. Those measures were framed by the government as an attempt to address intergenerational inequity.
Respondents in the poll suggested the proposed property tax changes had not resonated with many voters. The results indicated the measures were particularly unpopular with Generation X and Baby Boomer cohorts, even as the reforms were designed in part to benefit younger Australians.
Among younger age groups, only 26% of Millennials said they believed the budget would be good for them, and just 13% of Gen-Z voters expressed that view, the poll reported. Those figures suggest limited confidence in the reforms among the demographic groups the government intended to assist.
On a two-party-preferred basis - a calculation that reflects preference distribution under Australias ranked-choice voting system - Labor remained ahead of One Nation, 51% to 49%.
One Nation, a party founded in 1997 and led by Pauline Hanson, has historically held only a peripheral role in the national parliament. The partys recent resurgence in primary polling was attributed in the poll notes to its ability to tap voter concerns over high living costs, broader economic uncertainty and anti-immigration sentiment.
The poll results illustrate both the immediate political response to the May budget and the persistence of voter anxieties that have helped elevate One Nations standing in primary support. While Labor retains a narrow advantage in two-party-preferred terms, the primary polling indicates shifting voter preferences that political strategists and market observers will likely monitor as the electoral cycle progresses.
Methodological note: The poll sample comprised 1,005 voters and was conducted from May 25 to May 28. Reported margins of error are +/- 3.4 percentage points.