World May 31, 2026 10:36 AM

Fujimori Holds Slim Lead Over Sanchez One Week Ahead of Peru Runoff

Two polls show right-wing candidate ahead by a small margin as undecided and blank-ballot voters rise ahead of June 7 vote

By Marcus Reed

Two separate opinion polls published on Sunday show right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori narrowly leading leftist Roberto Sanchez ahead of Peru's presidential runoff scheduled for June 7. Ipsos indicated 38% for Fujimori and 35% for Sanchez, while Datum Internacional recorded 39.8% and 35.9% respectively. Both surveys highlight a significant share of voters who remain undecided or plan to cast blank or invalid ballots.

Fujimori Holds Slim Lead Over Sanchez One Week Ahead of Peru Runoff

Key Points

  • Two polls published Sunday show Keiko Fujimori with a narrow lead over Roberto Sanchez ahead of the June 7 runoff - Ipsos: 38% to 35%; Datum Internacional: 39.8% to 35.9%.
  • A growing share of respondents (27% in the Ipsos poll) say they would not vote for either candidate or plan to cast a blank/invalid ballot, increasing the importance of undecided voters in the final week.
  • Both candidates will debate later on Sunday; the polls include margins of error (Ipsos 2.8 percentage points; Datum Internacional 2.5 percentage points) that underscore the closeness of the race. Sectors potentially impacted include political risk-sensitive financial markets and domestic sectors that respond to political stability, such as infrastructure and investment planning.

LIMA, May 31 - Two independent polls published on Sunday indicate that Keiko Fujimori maintains a slim advantage over Roberto Sanchez with one week remaining before Peru's presidential runoff on June 7.

The Ipsos survey, carried out May 29-30 and published in the local newspaper Peru 21, projects Fujimori at 38% and Sanchez at 35% in the head-to-head vote. According to Ipsos, Fujimori's support declined by one percentage point compared with the previous Ipsos poll, while Sanchez's tally remained unchanged. The same poll found that 27% of respondents said they would either not vote for any candidate or intended to cast a blank or invalid ballot, an increase of one percentage point.

Alfredo Torres, CEO of Ipsos, commented on the significance of that bloc: "The big question in the final week is what undecided voters or those who say they plan to cast a blank or invalid ballot will do," he said. "The logic of choosing the lesser evil will ultimately determine who will be president of Peru for the 2026-2031 term."

A second poll, conducted May 26-30 by Datum Internacional and published in the local newspaper El Comercio, placed Fujimori at 39.8% and Sanchez at 35.9%.

Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of late former President Alberto Fujimori who is running for the presidency for the fourth time, emerged as the first-round leader on April 12 with 17% of the vote. Roberto Sanchez, an ally of jailed former leftist President Pedro Castillo, advanced to the runoff after receiving 12% in the first round.

Both candidates are scheduled to participate in a debate later on Sunday, ahead of the June 7 runoff.

Each poll reported a modest margin of sampling uncertainty. Ipsos cited a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points, while Datum Internacional reported a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.


These surveys show a tight contest with a significant segment of the electorate still uncommitted or signalling intent to submit blank or invalid ballots, making the final week of campaigning potentially decisive.

Risks

  • A sizable portion of respondents (27% in the Ipsos poll) say they plan to vote blank, invalid, or for no candidate - this uncertainty directly affects the election outcome and could influence investor and market sentiment in the short term. Affected sectors: financial markets, investment flows.
  • Polling margins of error (Ipsos 2.8 percentage points; Datum Internacional 2.5 percentage points) mean the apparent lead is narrow and could change within sampling error, leaving the result uncertain until votes are counted. Affected sectors: markets sensitive to political outcomes, including currency and bond markets.
  • Support for Fujimori declined by one percentage point in the Ipsos poll while Sanchez remained steady, indicating volatile voter dynamics in the final week; undecided voters deciding late could swing the result. Affected sectors: domestic economic planning and sectors reliant on regulatory continuity, such as infrastructure and energy.

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