Fitch Ratings on Friday affirmed Belgium's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at A+ and kept the outlook stable, pointing to the country's diversified, wealthy economy, high income per capita and the stabilizing influence of eurozone membership. The rating agency also noted that governance indicators remain well above the A peer median.
Despite those strengths, Fitch emphasized that very high and rising government debt complicates fiscal adjustment. The agency reported that Belgium's fiscal deficit widened to 5.2% of GDP in 2025 - the largest in the eurozone and roughly double the A median - driven by falling corporate tax receipts alongside increased defense and social spending.
Fitch expects deficits to hold near 5% of GDP over the medium term. The agency said current consolidation measures are not large enough to offset the impact of higher defense outlays and rising interest costs, and it highlighted a planned personal income tax cut that will reduce revenues from 2030 onwards.
The rating agency recorded that Belgium's debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 107.9% in 2025. Absent further fiscal reforms, Fitch projects that the ratio will surpass 115% by 2030.
On growth and inflation, Fitch forecast real GDP growth will slow to 0.8% in 2026 from 1.0% in 2025. The agency attributed the slowdown in part to higher energy prices related to the Iran war, which it said will weigh on private consumption and corporate investment. Inflation rose to 4.3% in April, driven by steep energy price increases, according to the report.
Belgium's energy policy developments were also noted. The government has suspended the planned dismantling of all nuclear power plants and is exploring the potential takeover of the country's nuclear fleet from the French utility Engie.
Fitch acknowledged that the Belgian government is advancing structural reforms, including changes to the labor market and to pensions. However, the agency said the fiscal and economic benefits of these reforms are likely to materialize only over the medium to long term.
External balances were another area of focus. Belgium's net international investment position stood at 54.3% of GDP at end-2025, well above A category peers. At the same time, the current account deficit widened to 1.9% of GDP in 2025, a deterioration Fitch linked to a shrinking goods surplus as the external sector faces pressures from high energy prices, elevated labor costs and rising global trade barriers.
Implications for markets and policy
Fitch's assessment underlines the tension between Belgium's strong institutional characteristics and mounting fiscal pressures. The outlook reflects confidence in the country's structural strengths while signaling that ongoing policy choices - including defense spending, tax reductions, and the pace of consolidation - will shape the medium-term fiscal trajectory.