Overview
Bernstein SocGen analysts told clients that the rise of agentic AI will materially change how consumers search for, discover and buy products online. They see the next 5-7 years as a period of active disruption and expect agentic e-commerce to become the primary mechanism of search, discovery and purchase decision-making for most U.S. adults by the 2030s. For apparel brands, the firm concludes, the overall effect should be positive relative to the current retail model.
Why control matters
Today many discretionary apparel brands rely on multi-brand retailers to reach broad audiences. That arrangement gives retailers substantial leverage: brands typically surrender a large portion of gross merchandise value when selling through wholesale channels, and they also pay for visibility through marketing and placement fees. The analysts note that this dynamic leaves brands with less control over pricing, merchandising and the checkout experience.
Agentic AI threatens to reorder those flows by initiating more searches through autonomous agents rather than sending users directly to multi-brand retail platforms. When an agent directs shoppers to a brand's DTC site to complete a purchase, the brand regains control of the full transaction sequence - onsite navigation, basket-building, cross-sell and upsell, and the final payment process - along with richer access to customer data.
Margin implications
Under the present wholesale model, brands often take roughly 50-60% of the retail price or GMV of a product, effectively relinquishing 40-50% to multi-brand retailers. Even after accounting for DTC operating expenses - including SG&A, website and app maintenance, marketing, fulfillment, last-mile delivery, returns and customer service - selling direct can yield operating margins that are about 10 percentage points or more higher than selling through wholesale channels, the analysts say.
That gap is particularly meaningful for premium brands with higher average selling values. The analysts point out that the revenue differential between receiving 100% of GMV versus 60% is larger for premium merchandise, and that difference is often sufficient to cover the higher operating costs of running a DTC business. In short, at premium price points, online DTC sales tend to be more accretive to margins than wholesale sales.
Bernstein SocGen quantifies the margin impact: the delta between online DTC and wholesale margins for premium brands is estimated at 15-20 percentage points. They model a scenario in which if 10% of customers switch to agentic search that steers them to DTC instead of multi-brand retailers, brands would see roughly a 150 basis point boost to operating margins.
Customer acquisition and marketing choices
Brands currently shoulder significant costs to appear on multi-brand retail platforms, paying for traffic, placement and site-level marketing. The analysts estimate that brands effectively pay for approximately 15-25% of traffic on those platforms in addition to other marketing spend. As AI agents begin to compete for brand marketing dollars, firms will be able to evaluate the fully loaded cost, conversion rates, order volume and basket sizes across channels to optimize return on investment.
In practical terms, a brand that previously invested to drive traffic to Amazon, Dick's or Macy's could instead assess AI agents as an alternative acquisition channel. By comparing the end-to-end economics, brands will have more flexibility to allocate spend where it produces the best ROI.
Data and the on-site experience
Beyond higher take-rates, routing traffic to DTC sites restores brands' access to first-party customer data. That data enables more effective personalization, improved on-site merchandising and greater ability to execute upsell and cross-sell strategies. Brands that control the checkout and post-purchase flows can also more directly manage returns, customer service and loyalty programs.
The analysts emphasize that these advantages are not hypothetical. When agentic search funnels shoppers to a brand's DTC environment, that brand controls both the immediate customer experience and the longer-term data relationship.
Implications for retailers
DTC brands and multi-brand retailers are rightly concerned that agentic AI could divert traffic away from retail sites. However, Bernstein SocGen argues that the consequence of this disruption will be a relative advantage for brands at the expense of multi-brand retailers. In the analysts' view, AI agent-driven traffic offers higher margins, better data availability and a stronger connection to consumers compared with the status quo wholesale model.
Limitations and scale considerations
The analysts model specific channel shifts - for example, a 10% reallocation of customers to agentic search directing to DTC - that would produce material margin tailwinds. But the firm also acknowledges the distributional consequences: brands lose some advantages of wholesale, such as broad reach and discovery on multi-brand sites that can drive lower-priced follow-on sales. The note frames agentic AI as increasing choice for brands on how to deploy marketing and placement spending rather than as a uniform replacement for all wholesale functions.
Bottom line
Bernstein SocGen's client note projects that agentic AI will reshape online discovery and purchasing over the next 5-7 years and become the prevailing mode for most U.S. adults by the 2030s. For apparel brands, this transition is likely to translate into improved margins, enhanced control of the customer experience and richer access to customer data. Multi-brand retailers, by contrast, may face pressure as agentic routing shifts a portion of transaction flows away from their platforms.
Data and models referenced in this article come from the Bernstein SocGen client note as described above.