Economists polled by Bloomberg are unanimous in expecting the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to leave its key interest rate at 6.50% at the policy meeting scheduled for May 15, according to a report from Erste.
The same report anticipates the NBR will lift its inflation outlook when it updates forecasts, though the size of that upward revision will depend on the forecast cut-off date used by the bank. That recalibration of projections is expected to translate into a firmer, hawkish tone at the central bank's press conference early next week. At the same time, Erste expects the NBR to avoid providing fresh forward guidance.
Erste judges that an actual rate hike by the NBR is highly unlikely at this juncture. Instead, tighter liquidity management remains a potential policy response: the central bank could sterilize surplus liquidity at the policy rate level through deposit-taking tenders. However, Erste does not believe such an operation is likely to be on the table for the current meeting.
According to the report, any move toward sterlization or similar liquidity measures would be more prone to arise from concerns about currency weakening rather than from a renewed surge in inflationary pressures. The bank's decision-making process is said to incorporate the relative interest rate differential vis-a-vis core euro-area markets and other Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies.
Markets are currently pricing in two 25-basis-point hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) by September. By contrast, Erste expects only a single ECB rate increase at the June meeting and projects policy rates across the CEE region will remain unchanged throughout 2026.
Observations from the report suggest that, despite an upgraded inflation profile, Romanian policymakers favour a cautious operational approach - signalling firmness in words while reserving discretion over the use of liquidity tools and avoiding an immediate shift in the policy rate.