SAO PAULO, June 20 - A new Datafolha poll published on Saturday indicates that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remains ahead of opposition right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the contest for October's presidential election.
In a hypothetical second-round runoff, Lula, representing the left-wing Workers' Party, would secure 47% of the vote against Bolsonaro's 43%, mirroring the figures recorded in the previous month's survey, according to Datafolha. In the most likely scenario for a first-round outcome, the incumbent attracted 41% support while the senator registered 31%.
The poll also highlights developments around an allegation that had the potential to damage the senator's standing. Datafolha said its results suggest Bolsonaro may have limited the electoral fallout after media reports that he had asked a now jailed banker to finance a film about his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro. Jair Bolsonaro has been convicted of plotting a coup against the democratic order, the poll report noted.
Flavio Bolsonaro has denied that any favors were exchanged regarding the financing of the film. The survey was conducted with 2,004 respondents across 139 cities and carries a margin of error of two percentage points.
Datafolha's numbers offer a snapshot of voter preferences at this stage in the campaign. The repetition of the 47% to 43% second-round split from the prior month indicates stability in the head-to-head measure captured by the survey, while the first-round figures show the incumbent with a double-digit lead over the senator in that configuration.
The poll's methodology details - the sample size, the geographic spread across 139 cities, and the stated margin of error - are all explicitly provided by Datafolha. Beyond those details, the survey report itself does not make claims about downstream effects on policy, markets, or specific sectors of the economy.
Methodology note: Datafolha surveyed 2,004 respondents in 139 cities. Margin of error is two percentage points.