BRUSSELS, July 13 - European Union foreign ministers will on Monday examine whether there is adequate political support for fresh measures aimed at curbing trade with Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, according to diplomats and officials familiar with the internal discussions.
The debate will be framed around a confidential paper prepared by the European Commission that presents three distinct policy options: an import licensing system, prohibitive tariffs or a complete ban, a senior EU diplomat and a European official said. The Commission circulated the document to member governments, but a Commission spokesperson declined to comment on the paper's content.
Pressure within the EU to take further action on settlements has increased in recent months. Diplomats and officials point to rising incidents of violence involving Israeli settlers and growing dissatisfaction with the policies of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government, which has continued settlement expansion.
The bloc has already taken steps earlier this year. In May, the EU imposed sanctions on four entities and three individuals over what it described as serious and systematic human rights abuses against Palestinians in the West Bank. Those measures reflect a mounting willingness among some member states to respond to developments on the ground.
Legal guidance has also influenced the conversation. In a July 2024 advisory opinion, the International Court of Justice said Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories and settlements in the West Bank are illegal and that states should take steps to prevent trade or investment relations that help maintain the situation. That ruling has been cited by governments and advocacy groups when arguing for more forceful EU action.
The idea of new trade restrictions has met strong pushback. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar last year called an effort by some European governments to implement the International Court of Justice opinion "shameful." Most U.N. bodies and a majority of states have judged West Bank settlements to be illegal; Israel rejects that characterisation, treating the area as disputed and noting a long-standing Jewish presence.
How any decision could be adopted within the EU is itself contested. Some diplomats argue that a ban on settlement trade would require a qualified majority vote - defined as at least 15 member states representing 65% of the bloc's population. However, the Commission's confidential paper suggests the Commission may view a ban as requiring unanimous support from all member states, a threshold that would render such a measure highly unlikely to pass.
"I think what you will see on Monday is a discussion on the options, and we will get a bit of a picture of where everybody is," said a diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential internal deliberations. Officials cautioned that they did not expect a formal decision on any specific measure during Monday's meeting; the aim is to map political positions and identify potential pathways forward.
The dispute underscores longstanding divisions within the 27-member bloc over Middle East policy, particularly on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Those divisions extend beyond substantive choices to procedural questions about how to adopt measures that would affect trade relations and diplomatic ties.
European Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho has confirmed that a paper has been shared with member countries but declined to comment on its contents. Diplomats said Monday's session is likely to clarify which capitals favour which of the three options and where additional diplomatic work will be needed.
Summary of the situation
EU foreign ministers will discuss a confidential Commission paper that presents three possible measures to limit trade with Israeli settlements: import licensing, prohibitive tariffs or a ban. The debate reflects growing pressure to act after incidents involving settlers and settlement expansion, but deep divisions among member states and uncertainty about the voting rules mean no immediate decision is expected.