Morgan Stanley has identified China’s recent recovery of an orbital-class Long March 10B booster as the most consequential long-term competitive challenge to SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX). In a research note, the Wall Street firm described the successful booster recovery as a major step toward routine rocket reuse, while underscoring the remaining hurdles Beijing must clear before fielding an operational reusable launch system.
The brokerage pointed out that the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corp. - CASC - now joins SpaceX and Blue Origin as one of only three organizations to recover an orbital-class booster. That milestone, Morgan Stanley said, reflects accelerating ambitions in China’s commercial space sector.
Analysts at the firm drew attention to the mix of state-backed programs alongside private launch companies such as LandSpace, Galactic Energy and Space Pioneer. That combined ecosystem, Morgan Stanley argued, positions China as the most meaningful long-run competitive threat to SpaceX’s launch business.
The note also compared launch activity in recent periods, saying China completed 90 orbital launches in 2025, against SpaceX’s 165 Falcon 9 missions. Those figures place China as the world’s second-largest launch market by activity, according to the brokerage.
On technical timelines, Morgan Stanley referenced earlier U.S. Space Force estimates that China was three to five years away from mastering rocket reusability, while noting the Long March 10B demonstration could compress that window. The firm cautioned that repeated launches and successful reflights will still be required to validate an operational reusable system.
Beyond boosters, Morgan Stanley highlighted broader Chinese ambitions in space hardware and infrastructure. The note called out planned Guowang and Qianfan low-Earth orbit satellite constellations, which together target about 28,000 satellites, and referenced a proposed filing for more than 190,000 non-geostationary satellites. The brokerage also pointed to Chinese investment in space-based computing, citing the launch of the first satellites in the planned 2,800-satellite "Star Compute" orbital supercomputer network.
Despite the expanding competitive landscape, Morgan Stanley left its recommendation on SpaceX unchanged - maintaining an overweight rating and a $300 price target. The firm said SpaceX remains the global leader on launch cadence, reusable rocket technology and satellite connectivity, while advising investors not to underestimate China’s progress in narrowing the gap.
Summary
China's recovery of a Long March 10B booster represents a material technical advance toward reusable orbital launch capability. Morgan Stanley identified China as the biggest long-term competitor to SpaceX given the combination of state-backed programs, an active private launch sector, rising launch activity and ambitious satellite constellations. The brokerage preserved its overweight stance on SpaceX but cautioned that Beijing must still demonstrate repeatable reflights before an operational reusable launch system is proven.