Overview
Goldman Sachs released a note that expands the typical investor focus on the Strait of Hormuz to consider a broader geopolitical reopening. The analysis looks at a hypothetical full recovery in traffic from the Middle East, Russia, Ukraine and China and estimates the direct traffic and retail earnings implications for major European airport operators.
What Goldman modeled
The note, authored by analyst Patrick Creuset, argues that recent investor conversations have centered on Strait of Hormuz exposure. Goldman proposes a wider framework - a full recovery of traffic flows from multiple regions - to assess cyclical recovery potential across airport assets. The firm emphasized that this broader reopening scenario is not its base case and it did not attach any timing to the exercise; it described the work as a tool to gauge upside potential by asset rather than a forecast.
Traffic impacts by airport
Goldman estimated that Fraport would experience the greatest direct uplift in traffic under a full recovery, projecting a 7% increase. The bank split that effect evenly between traffic returning from the Middle East and from Russia. Zurich Airport was the next most sensitive, with a potential 5% upside to traffic, followed by Aeroports de Paris (ADP) at an estimated 4% lift. Spain's AENA was identified as having only a minor direct traffic impact under the scenario.
Retail and spending effects
Goldman also highlighted the role of per-capita retail spending in amplifying the reopening benefits. The bank noted that higher retail spending among returning passengers would disproportionately boost airport retail earnings, and it suggested that Aeroports de Paris would likely see the largest retail-earnings impact of the operators covered.
Goldman's stock views remain mixed
Separately from the thematic reopening exercise, Goldman maintained differentiated stock ratings. The bank assigns AENA a Sell rating, citing expectations of a "more difficult 5-10 year cycle" and noting guidance for capex to quadruple by 2031. Fraport is rated Neutral; Goldman flagged what it described as "suboptimal" capital allocation and a deteriorated traffic outlook, while acknowledging Fraport would benefit from a Strait of Hormuz reopening. Zurich was recently upgraded to Buy on the basis of strong traffic growth and falling investment levels. ADP is rated Neutral amid weak traffic and rising capex.
Implications for markets and sectors
The exercise isolates cyclically sensitive exposure across airports and their retail operations, offering investors a framework to compare potential upside by asset if multi-region traffic flows normalize. Goldman framed the work as an analytical tool rather than an investment recommendation or a timing call.