Overview
China's reliance on coal for electricity generation fell below the 50% mark in the first half of 2026, according to figures released by energy administration officials. Coal made up 49.7% of the country's power mix for the six months through June, the energy administration's deputy director general of the development and planning office, Xing Yiteng, said on Thursday.
Growth in renewables
Renewable energy supplied 41.2% of China’s electricity in that period, exceeding 40% for the first time. Xing noted that wind and solar accounted for 24.6% of that share. The balance of the power mix was supplied by natural gas and nuclear generation, according to the official statement.
Demand dynamics and coal outlook
Analysts cautioned that, despite the lower coal proportion in the first half, total coal consumption in 2026 may still be higher than in 2025 if electricity demand continues to accelerate. The country has experienced faster uptake of electric vehicles, expanded data center capacity to support artificial intelligence workloads, and continued growth in exports - trends cited as drivers of rising power demand.
Policy targets and projections
China has set a policy objective to ensure coal consumption peaks no later than 2030. The government has also announced an ambition to raise the combined share of wind and solar to 30% of the power mix by 2030.
Gao Yuhe, project manager at Greenpeace East Asia, said the 30% wind and solar goal could be achieved sooner than the official target, potentially by 2028, if deployment of rooftop solar and battery systems accelerates.
Key points
- Coal's contribution to China's electricity supply fell to 49.7% in H1 2026, below the 50% threshold for the first time.
- Renewables reached 41.2% of the power mix, with wind and solar responsible for 24.6% of that share.
- Rising electricity demand from EVs, AI data centers, and export-related activity could lift annual coal consumption despite the lower share in the first half.
Sectors impacted
- Power generation and utilities - shift in fuel mix affects dispatch and investment.
- Coal industry and midstream - potential for continued demand depending on annual consumption.
- Renewables and energy storage - accelerated deployment could bring targets forward.
Risks and uncertainties
- Annual coal consumption: Even with a sub-50% coal share in H1, total coal use this year may exceed last year if electricity demand grows rapidly - a risk for coal market forecasts and emissions planning.
- Target timing: The government’s aim to peak coal consumption by 2030 faces uncertainty if demand drivers persist or accelerate.
- Renewables deployment pace: Achieving or beating the 30% wind and solar target depends on the speed of rooftop solar and battery system rollouts, an outcome that is uncertain.
Note: The figures and statements in this article reflect official comments and analyst observations provided in the source material.