A recent analysis by U.S. rural lender CoBank, drawing on data compiled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, shows diverging patterns in American sweetener use. Cane and beet sugar consumption increased by 0.6% in the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year that began in October, while deliveries of high fructose corn syrup, or HFCS, declined by 3.5% in the same timeframe.
The report notes that the modest gain in sugar demand essentially tracked population growth - the U.S. population rose by 0.5% in 2025 - and that the growth was concentrated in certain distribution channels. Wholesale grocers and food distributors were among the sectors where sugar use expanded more noticeably, according to CoBank.
CoBank interpreted the split between sugar and HFCS as evidence that both food manufacturers and consumers are leaning toward less processed, natural sweeteners. "Food manufacturers and consumers continue to favor natural sweeteners over more highly processed alternatives, as sugar and HFCS delivery trend lines make clear," the report said.
Public sentiment appears to be shifting even as measured sugar use grows. The International Food Information Council found in a 2025 survey that three out of four U.S. consumers want to limit or entirely avoid sugar. That consumer intent contrasts with the recorded uptick in cane and beet sugar deliveries but aligns with the drop in HFCS.
CoBank also flagged potential longer-term challenges for the sugar sector. The report named the Make America Healthy Again, or MAHA, movement as a long-term risk, and it identified rising adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs as another prospective headwind. The report cited projections suggesting that active GLP-1 users could see grocery basket sizes fall by as much as 31% - a decline that would not necessarily single out sweetened products but would reduce demand broadly if consumers eat less overall.
While the near-term data show sugar demand holding up, CoBank's analysis highlights areas of vulnerability for producers, distributors and food manufacturers should dietary trends intensify or pharmaceutical-driven weight loss become more widespread. The report's findings point to a market where preference shifts and public-health movements can reshape demand patterns even when headline consumption figures remain relatively steady.
Methodology note: The findings reported here are taken from a CoBank analysis based on USDA-compiled delivery and consumption data for the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year that began in October, and referenced consumer survey results published in 2025 by the International Food Information Council.