Mizuho has named four consumer-sector companies as top picks, spanning lodging, online pet retail, big-box membership retail and quick-service restaurants. The investment bank assigns Outperform ratings to each firm and lays out the operational and financial assumptions underpinning its price targets.
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts (WH) - Gaming, Lodging and Leisure
Mizuho upgraded Wyndham to Outperform with a $108 price target versus a current market price of $84.21. The bank cites an expected positive inflection in U.S. Economy RevPAR and points to encouraging recent trends: a two-year stack for the Economy segment that accelerated into positive growth in June and sequential market improvements in key states including Florida, Texas and California. Mizuho highlights an 800 basis point improvement between fourth quarter 2025 and first quarter 2026 in those markets.
The analyst team views fiscal-year RevPAR guidance as conservative and expects improving fundamentals to favor lower-end consumers. The $108 target is derived using a multiple of 14 times Mizuho's 2026 estimated EBITDA of $738 million.
Chewy (CHWY) - Consumer Internet
Mizuho assigns Chewy an Outperform rating and a $40 target compared with a current price of $19.65. The bank considers the company’s recently lowered fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance of 5-6% to be de-risked and achievable. Mizuho expects at least 100 basis points of year-over-year adjusted EBITDA margin expansion as AI-driven cost efficiencies are realized.
Key operational drivers cited include maturation of the Chewy+ membership program, category premiumization and expansion into healthcare products. The research note references automation in fulfillment, projecting an increase from 45% of units processed today to a targeted 70-80% of units. The $40 target is based on roughly 16 times Mizuho's fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimates.
Costco (COST) - Consumer Broadlines
Within hardlines and broadlines, Mizuho's top pick is Costco, rated Outperform with a $1,100 target versus a current price of $935.47. The bank acknowledges concerns about slowing membership growth but notes that about half of recent U.S. warehouse openings are fill-ins that can temporarily dampen membership expansion. It points to accelerating trade-up activity, with first-quarter premium member additions running two to three times total membership additions.
Domestic renewal rates remain above 90%. Mizuho sees a possibility of a $17-18 special dividend announcement within the next six to twelve months. The $1,100 target is based on roughly 43 times fiscal 2028 earnings estimates.
Dutch Bros (BROS) - Restaurants
Mizuho rates Dutch Bros Outperform with an $80 target compared with a current price of $71.81. The firm believes Dutch Bros can sustain gains in traffic share while delivering 15%+ unit growth. The bank describes second-quarter and full-year 2026 same-store sales guidance as conservative and expects the company's food rollout to contribute roughly 2.8% to annual sales growth.
Mizuho projects cash-on-cash returns will increase to over 50%. The $80 target corresponds to an EV/EBITDA multiple of 29.4 times Mizuho's 2027 EBITDA estimate of $482 million, reflecting expected EBITDA growth of 27%.
How Mizuho frames the upside
Across these four names, Mizuho emphasizes a combination of improving top-line trends, productivity gains and targeted capital allocation. Each price target is explicitly tied to multiples of future EBITDA or earnings estimates: 14 times 2026 EBITDA for Wyndham, roughly 16 times fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA for Chewy, about 43 times fiscal 2028 earnings for Costco and 29.4 times 2027 EV/EBITDA for Dutch Bros.
The bank's thesis relies on measurable operational improvements: RevPAR inflection and market sequencing for Wyndham, automation and membership maturation for Chewy, premium member trade-up and renewal durability for Costco, and unit growth plus a food rollout and higher cash-on-cash returns for Dutch Bros.
Bottom line
Mizuho’s selections reflect confidence in discrete, company-specific catalysts and margin expansion opportunities within the consumer space. The research note frames each pick with explicit valuation assumptions tied to near- to mid-term EBITDA or earnings estimates and quantifies the operational levers the bank expects to drive upside.