Lundin Mining Corporation saw its stock trade higher by approximately 3% on Wednesday after management presented its outlook at the company's 2026 capital markets day (CMD). The published guidance provided detailed numbers for the single-year 2026 horizon as well as cumulative projections stretching across 2026-2035.
For 2026, Lundin set a revenue target of about $4.5 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.7 billion and adjusted free cash flow from operations of $1.2 billion. The free cash flow figure is stated before working capital movements, growth capital expenditures and exploration expenditures.
The company’s 2026 outlook is built on metal price assumptions of copper at $5.50 per pound and gold at $4,000 per ounce. Management left its production outlook unchanged, signalled slightly lower cash costs at the Chapada operation, and noted a $35 million increase in growth capital expenditure.
Market context from analysts highlighted differences between Lundin’s guidance and consensus expectations. The company’s $1.7 billion adjusted EBITDA projection for 2026 compares with a consensus estimate of $2.6 billion. Morgan Stanley indicated the adjusted free cash flow guidance is broadly in line with the $1.3 billion consensus figure.
Looking beyond 2026, Lundin provided cumulative targets of $13.2 billion in EBITDA and $8.2 billion in adjusted free cash flow from operations for the 2026-2030 period. Management expects both metrics to increase materially in the subsequent 2031-2035 window, with cumulative EBITDA rising to $22.3 billion and adjusted free cash flow from operations to $15.5 billion.
Morgan Stanley commented that the company’s 10-year cumulative EBITDA outlook is directly in line with consensus.
Separately, Lundin’s Vicuna copper project secured formal approval to include its Josemaria and Filo del Sol deposits in Argentina’s Incentive Regime for Large Investments under the Long-Term Strategic Export Projects designation. Morgan Stanley noted this approval makes Vicuna the first copper mining project in Argentina to receive the more favourable RIGI PEELP status.
The CMD released a mix of signals for investors: a near-term EBITDA projection that sits below consensus estimates, but multi-decade free cash flow and EBITDA ramps that align with or meet market expectations. The regulatory step in Argentina for Vicuna represents a project-level milestone that the company highlighted alongside its financial guidance.