Deutsche Bank on Wednesday cut its recommendation on Diasorin to sell from hold and lowered its 12-month price target to €58 from €62. The broker said the move reflects heightened risk around the diagnostics company's 2026 guidance and what it views as aggressive assumptions underpinning Diasorin's longer-term 2030 ambitions.
The new €58 target implies roughly 15% downside from the stock's June 15 close of €67.30. Diasorin's 52-week trading range sits between €55.62 and €94.68, the bank noted as it outlined its revised model and valuation approach.
Updated financial modelling and near-term outlook
Deutsche Bank's estimates put adjusted EBITDA for 2026 about 4% below consensus, with divergences widening to as much as 7% for later years. The broker maintained a 2026 constant-currency sales growth forecast of 3%, below Diasorin's own guidance of 5% to 6%. It also modeled an adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.5%, versus the company's guided range of 32% to 33%.
Those model changes reflect a more cautious read on the company's expected performance through the year. Diasorin has signaled an accelerating revenue profile, moving from a reported organic sales decline of 3% in the first quarter to modest growth in the second quarter and a targeted 10% to 12% expansion in the second half.
Deutsche Bank said many of the assumptions required for that rapid H2 acceleration do not align with recent commentary from peers, and concluded that a guidance reduction is increasingly likely unless trends materially improve.
Headwinds highlighted by the broker
- Declines in U.S. immigration-related testing tied to the QuantiFERON test;
- Lower-than-expected demand for molecular diagnostic products related to a weak influenza season;
- A 22% revenue decline in China in the first quarter attributed to the expansion of Value-Based Procurement to Shanghai and Beijing;
- Persistent weakness in Middle East demand that the company has not included in its guidance.
The bank emphasized that these factors may be more persistent than Diasorin currently assumes, and that they pose downside risk to the company's near-term growth trajectory.
Longer-term targets and product assumptions
On the 2030 framework, Diasorin targets a 6% to 8% compound annual sales growth rate and roughly 200 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to reach 34% to 35%. Deutsche Bank said these outcomes depend heavily on adoption of the LIAISON NES point-of-care platform.
Deutsche Bank's analysts modeled LIAISON NES sales of between €97 million and €126 million by 2030. That range sits below the €125 million to €200 million implied by Diasorin's guidance. The bank's projection is built from an assumed installed base of 4,650 to 5,250 systems and recurring revenue per system of €21,000 to €24,000 annually.
By contrast, analysts at Deutsche Bank reported more favorable feedback on the LIAISON PLEX platform following expert calls. They described the PLEX pricing model as flexible and said the company's implied target of about €180 million in multiplex sales by 2030 appears achievable.
Valuation, multiples and takeover prospects
Deutsche Bank trimmed its target multiple for fiscal 2027/28 estimates to 15 times price-to-earnings from 16 times. The bank noted Diasorin shares trade at roughly 17 times 2027 P/E, representing about a 25% premium to its two main European peers.
For its valuation the bank used a discounted cash flow framework with a weighted average cost of capital of 7.8% and a 2% terminal growth rate to arrive at the new €58 target.
Deutsche Bank also judged a near-term takeover to be unlikely, citing the long-term commitment of Diasorin's largest shareholder and limited valuation upside relative to peers such as Qiagen, which the bank said trades at about 14 times 2027 P/E.
Implications for investors
The downgrade and reduced price target reflect recalibrated expectations around Diasorin's ability to deliver both the short-term rebound the company has outlined for 2026 and the more ambitious 2030 targets driven by new point-of-care deployments. Investors will likely watch the company for any guidance revisions and for signs of resilience in the NES and PLEX rollouts.