May 21 - U.S. stock index futures were largely muted on Thursday despite Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected forward guidance and a substantial share buyback announcement, as investors prepared for a lineup of retail earnings and key economic readings that could clarify the fallout from ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company, ticked up 0.3% in premarket trade after forecasting second-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates and unveiling an $80 billion share repurchase plan. The chipmaker’s shares have climbed almost 20% so far this year, yet the pace of gains has moderated as market participants weigh the prospect of stiffer competition from large technology companies and other chipmakers, including Intel and Advanced Micro Devices.
"The market’s attention is now focused on how long Nvidia can sustain this momentum," said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell. "Growing competition is a key factor weighing on investors’ minds, with Nvidia no longer in a one-horse race."
Geopolitical developments remained a prominent influence on sentiment. Pakistan intensified diplomatic efforts to speed U.S.-Iran peace talks, while Iran said it was reviewing Washington’s most recent response. U.S. President Donald Trump said he could wait a few days for "the right answers" from Iran but also signaled he was prepared to resume attacks if necessary. Against this backdrop, Brent crude futures eased 0.7% to $104.21 a barrel on the prospect of talks.
Fixed income markets reflected growing inflation concerns tied in part to the geopolitical uncertainty. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.582%, continuing a recent upward trajectory after breaking a three-day streak of declines on Wednesday. Analysts cited a lack of meaningful progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz as one factor contributing to upward pressure on yields.
Markets are pricing in roughly a 40% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. At 06:00 a.m. ET, futures were mixed: Dow E-minis were up 80 points, or 0.16%; S&P 500 E-minis gained 3.75 points, or 0.05%; and Nasdaq 100 E-minis slipped 6 points, or 0.02%.
Corporate developments also drew attention. SpaceX filed for an initial public offering on Wednesday, offering investors an early look at how much founder Elon Musk is directing toward artificial intelligence initiatives as he aims to expand the rocket maker’s ambitions into a broader AI-led enterprise.
On the economic calendar, weekly jobless claims and business activity surveys are scheduled for later in the day, potentially giving investors additional insight into labor market trends and the broader health of the economy. The first-quarter earnings season, which has already been stronger than expected, is entering its final phase.
Retail results are among the most closely watched upcoming reports. Walmart will report before the opening bell and is expected to serve as a key indicator of consumer spending and the degree to which inflation continues to strain household budgets.
In premarket moves, shares of Intuit fell 12.6% after the software company reduced its annual revenue forecast for its TurboTax tax-filing business and announced a plan to eliminate 17% of its full-time workforce.
Investors entered the session balancing corporate news, macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments, seeking signals on growth, inflation and earnings momentum as the market digests fresh information across these fronts.