Thailand's residential property market showed early signs of recovery in the first quarter of 2026, the Government Housing Bank said, as transaction volumes increased amid targeted policy measures but value growth remained limited, reflecting continued pressure on household buying power.
In a statement released on Wednesday, the bank highlighted that while more units changed hands during January-March, the overall value of those transactions rose only modestly - a pattern that points to a shift toward lower-priced homes.
Key data from the quarter include an 11.2% year-on-year rise in residential unit transfers, while the total value of those transfers climbed by 3.1% - a divergence the bank said underscores weaker purchasing capacity among buyers.
New mortgage lending also showed signs of life after an extended downturn, with lending up 11.1% year-on-year to about 122 billion baht in the first quarter.
Despite the early recovery, the bank said the market's near-term prospects remain fragile. It cited rising energy prices - which it linked to the ongoing Middle East war - together with soft domestic demand and a pullback in foreign buying as factors expected to weigh on the sector through the rest of 2026.
Those pressures are expected to blunt the market's momentum, with the Government Housing Bank forecasting a slight contraction in 2026. The bank projects residential transfers will fall 1.1% in volume and 2.3% in value, and it expects new mortgage lending to decline by 1.6% over the year.
Foreign condominium demand weakened sharply in January-March, the bank reported, with transfers by foreigners down about 17% year-on-year in both volume and value, although foreign buyers still represent a significant share of transactions. Chinese buying was particularly affected, with value down 43%, while demand from Russian buyers increased. Foreign activity was concentrated in Bangkok, Chonburi and Phuket, notably in higher-end segments.
The Government Housing Bank said housing market declines in 2026 will be limited by ongoing policy support. Measures cited include government stimulus, an extension of loan-to-value easing for another year and fee reductions for certain categories of homes.
Rising energy and construction costs, driven by geopolitical tensions, are eroding household purchasing power, the bank warned. Those cost pressures, together with Thailand's high household debt level - 16.44 trillion baht at the end of last year, equivalent to 86.7% of GDP - continue to weigh on consumption and economic growth.
Exchange rate cited by the bank: $1 = 32.5900 baht.