Spain's Consumer Rights Ministry has issued a temporary prohibition on the U.S.-based prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, citing the absence of a mandatory gambling license, according to a notice published in the official state gazette on Tuesday.
The ministry said its gambling regulator initiated a formal inquiry after determining the companies may have been operating without the required administrative authorization under Spanish regulations. Officials expect the suspension to last approximately three to four months while the investigation proceeds.
Regulatory concerns cited
In its statement, the ministry noted that operators functioning without authorization do not meet specified technical and regulatory safeguards. Among the shortcomings the regulator flagged were inadequate identity-verification systems, missing controls to block access by minors and by individuals who have self-excluded or are otherwise banned from gambling, and an absence of the protective standards authorities require to safeguard users.
How prediction markets operate
Prediction markets enable participants to buy and sell positions on future events, with market prices acting as signals of the implied probability for different outcomes. When participants place bets on uncertain results, Spanish authorities treat these platforms as a form of gambling and thus subject to gambling regulation.
Industry context
The ministry's action arrives as prediction markets have expanded from a niche activity into a multi-billion-dollar sector, a growth trajectory that accelerated after the platforms gained prominence in U.S. politics in 2024. The regulator’s move reflects Spain's classification of bets on uncertain outcomes as gambling and its insistence that operators meet specific safeguards before serving Spanish users.
Until the investigation concludes, Polymarket and Kalshi will remain restricted from offering services in Spain while authorities assess whether the platforms complied with the nation's licensing and consumer-protection requirements.