Economy May 27, 2026 11:22 AM

New York Fed Study Links Rising Food Insecurity to Weak Consumer Sentiment

Bank research finds growth in food-related hardships concentrated among lower-income, lower-educated households and families with children, aligning with deeper pessimism and falling job-finding expectations

By Jordan Park

Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, released on Wednesday, identifies a rise in food-related hardships between October 2025 and February 2026. The increases were most pronounced among lower-income and lower-educated households, nonwhite respondents, and households with children. These food challenges correlate with heightened pessimism among lower-income consumers and a marked drop in their expectations for finding a job, which the bank suggests may help explain the gap between weak consumer sentiment measures and otherwise positive macroeconomic data.

New York Fed Study Links Rising Food Insecurity to Weak Consumer Sentiment

Key Points

  • Food-related hardships increased between October 2025 and February 2026, based on the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations.
  • Increases were larger for nonwhite, lower-income, lower-educated households, and households with children; these trends correlate with greater pessimism and weaker job-finding expectations among lower-income consumers.
  • Sectors tied to consumer demand and labor markets - such as consumer-facing retail and employment-sensitive industries - are the most directly implicated by falling sentiment and worsening food insecurity.

Overview

New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, published on Wednesday, documents growing food-related struggles among U.S. households and links those struggles to deteriorating consumer sentiment in lower-income groups. The bank's analysis highlights sharper increases in food insecurity for certain demographic groups and notes an associated decline in confidence about future employment prospects.


Survey scope and measures

The findings are drawn from the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations. Respondents were asked whether, in recent weeks, they had tapped savings to meet expenses, encountered difficulty obtaining enough food or had skipped meals, or received food assistance from public or private sources. The bank's economists compared responses between October 2025 and February 2026 to assess changes over that period.

Key findings

  • There were meaningful increases in the shares of households reporting use of savings for expenses, trouble securing enough food, skipping meals, or receiving food assistance between October 2025 and February 2026.
  • The rises were broad based across race, age, income, and education groups but were notably larger for nonwhite respondents, lower-income and lower-educated households, and households with children.
  • Alongside these food-related challenges, the bank identified growing pessimism among lower-income households and a sharp drop in expectations about finding a job.

Interpretation

The New York Fed's economists connect the uptick in food insecurity with the decline in consumer sentiment among lower-income households. They frame this relationship as a potential explanation for the persistence of unusually low consumer sentiment measures even as many hard economic indicators present a more positive picture.

The report is presented as part of a continuing series that highlights divergent economic outcomes across income groups - often described in the analysis as a K-shaped pattern - where conditions for higher-income households differ from those for less affluent households.


Limitations and context within the report

The authors rely on survey responses to capture food-related hardships and sentiment shifts. The report describes the correlation between rising food challenges and worsening sentiment among lower-income groups but does not assert causal mechanisms beyond the association observed in the survey data.

Conclusion

The New York Fed's February 2026 comparison underscores increasing food insecurity concentrated in specific demographic groups and links this trend to falling consumer confidence and job-finding expectations among lower-income households. The report situates these findings within a broader narrative of unequal economic experiences across the population.

Risks

  • Persistence or worsening of food insecurity among lower-income and lower-educated households could further depress consumer sentiment, affecting consumer-driven sectors.
  • A sustained decline in job-finding expectations for lower-income households introduces uncertainty for labor-market recovery and employment-sensitive industries.
  • Survey-based correlations do not establish causation; the extent and duration of the observed trends cannot be determined from the reported comparisons alone.

More from Economy

Australian house price momentum to slow to four-year low as borrowing costs bite Jun 4, 2026 Kevin O’Leary Scales Back Utah Data Center Plan Amid Lawmaker Concerns Jun 4, 2026 Fed's Daly Says AI Could Exert Downward Pressure on Prices Over Several Years Jun 4, 2026 Putin Says Moscow Willing to Make Concessions if Kyiv Reciprocates Jun 4, 2026 Putin Says Moscow and Beijing Near New Energy Deals, Offers Few Details Jun 4, 2026