Economy May 21, 2026 01:05 AM

Middle East conflict drags on India manufacturing as services show modest resilience, PMI indicates

Composite PMI edges down to 58.1 in May as factory orders and production slow while services activity ticks up

By Marcus Reed

India's private-sector expansion moderated in May as a slowdown in manufacturing - linked to the Middle East conflict and weaker external demand - offset a slight improvement in services activity. The HSBC flash Composite PMI compiled by S&P Global fell to 58.1 from April's 58.2, with export orders, input costs and business optimism showing signs of strain.

Middle East conflict drags on India manufacturing as services show modest resilience, PMI indicates

Key Points

  • Composite PMI eased to 58.1 in May from April's 58.2, remaining above the 50 expansion threshold.
  • Manufacturing slowed - factory new orders grew at one of the weakest rates in nearly four years and production growth eased; manufacturing PMI fell to 54.3 from 54.7.
  • Services activity edged up to 58.9 from 58.8 and service-sector hiring increased at the strongest pace in nearly a year.

Bengaluru, May 21 - Growth across India's private economy softened in May, driven mainly by a cooling manufacturing sector even as the services segment recorded a marginal gain, according to the HSBC flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) compiled by S&P Global.

The composite PMI slipped to 58.1 in May from a final reading of 58.2 in April, and was marginally above a median forecast of 58.0. The 50 mark separates expansion from contraction.

The slowdown was concentrated in manufacturing. New orders in the factory sector expanded at one of the slowest rates seen in nearly four years, and production growth slowed to its second-weakest pace since mid-2022. The manufacturing PMI fell to 54.3 in May from April's 54.7.

By contrast, the services PMI business activity index provided some upward momentum, rising slightly to 58.9 from 58.8 the previous month.

Export demand weakened across the private economy. New export orders rose at their slowest rate in 19 months, with survey respondents pointing to the Middle East conflict and travel disruptions as factors that weighed on international demand.

Costs for businesses increased overall. Input prices paid by firms were higher, led by a sharp rise in manufacturing outlays, which climbed at the steepest rate since July 2022. Survey respondents cited higher costs for energy, steel, and food as drivers of the increase.

Despite rising input costs, firms limited how much of those expenses were passed on to customers. Composite-level output charges increased at the softest pace since January.

Labour trends were mixed. Service providers expanded payrolls at the strongest rate in nearly a year, while job creation in manufacturing eased.

Business confidence moderated as well, with optimism slipping to a three-month low. The survey’s latest readings suggest that persistent cost pressures and weaker global demand are beginning to challenge the resilience of India's growth engine.


Implications for markets and sectors

  • Manufacturing and export-oriented industries face pressure from softer international demand and higher input costs.
  • Services continue to support private-sector activity, notably through stronger hiring in the sector.
  • Inflationary input pressures - energy, steel, and food - are influencing firms' cost structures and pricing decisions.

Risks

  • Cooling global demand and travel disruptions - noted as linked to the Middle East conflict - have reduced export orders, affecting manufacturing and export-exposed sectors.
  • Rising input costs for energy, steel, and food are increasing firms' overheads, putting pressure on profit margins across manufacturing and other cost-sensitive industries.
  • Business optimism has declined to a three-month low, introducing uncertainty for investment and hiring plans in both manufacturing and services.

More from Economy

Japanese Real Wages Rise for Fourth Straight Month, Strengthening Case for Monetary Tightening Jun 4, 2026 Market Resilience Amidst Sector Shifts: Dow and Russell 2000 Reach New Heights Jun 4, 2026 Australian house price momentum to slow to four-year low as borrowing costs bite Jun 4, 2026 Kevin O’Leary Scales Back Utah Data Center Plan Amid Lawmaker Concerns Jun 4, 2026 Fed's Daly Says AI Could Exert Downward Pressure on Prices Over Several Years Jun 4, 2026