Overview
Futures tied to the major U.S. equity benchmarks were essentially flat on Friday as market participants monitored fresh reports that negotiators had reached a deal to extend the current ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, subject to presidential sign-off. The mood in markets reflected a mix of relief over possible de-escalation and continued scrutiny of large private financings and potential initial public offerings that could reshape capital markets later this year.
Futures and early session moves
By 03:42 ET (07:42 GMT), the Dow futures contract and S&P 500 futures were mostly unchanged, while Nasdaq 100 futures had edged down by 0.1%. The main U.S. averages had moved higher the previous session, bolstered by a slate of earnings results that were well received, an inflation print that came in cooler than expected for April, and growing hopes that a diplomatic resolution could end the fighting in Iran.
Analysts at Vital Knowledge summarized prevailing market expectations in a note, writing: "We still think an Iran deal is widely expected and so the reaction in the SPX when one arrives shouldn’t be dramatic at this point, although oil and yields have room to fall, and could have a more pronounced response to an accord."
Details of the reported ceasefire extension
According to sources quoted by Reuters, negotiators on both sides have agreed to extend the weeks-long truce by 60 days, pending approval from President Donald Trump. The arrangement, as described in the reports, would also permit commercial shipping to resume passage through the Strait of Hormuz while diplomats work through the remaining elements of a broader agreement that would address issues including Iran's nuclear program.
The Strait of Hormuz has been a central friction point in the roughly three-month-old conflict, given its role as a conduit for about a fifth of the world's oil supply. Both belligerents have imposed restrictions on commercial vessel movement through the waterway at various points, tightening global energy availability and contributing to elevated oil prices earlier in the conflict.
Oil markets respond
Global crude benchmarks were trading lower on the reports. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, were around $93.87 a barrel, near the flatline, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures slipped 0.2% to $88.72 a barrel. The decline puts oil on pace to record its sharpest weekly drop since early April.
Despite the pullback, the contracts have previously touched levels above $100 a barrel and remain materially elevated relative to pre-conflict prices. That persistent premium has raised concern among economists and investors that a sustained energy shock could translate into broader inflationary pressure across economies, including the U.S.
On the inflation front, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge indicated that prices rose at a slower-than-expected rate in April. Nonetheless, the release also flagged that household purchasing power was under pressure as consumers adjusted spending to accommodate higher energy costs. ING analysts commented on policy implications, stating: "[T]he Fed is unlikely to cut rates again anytime soon and will likely retain a hawkish bias over the summer months, until policymakers are confident that the energy surge has passed and will start to reverse." The ING note added that reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be a necessary condition for that reversal.
Investor focus shifts to large listings and private capital
Outside of geopolitical headlines, significant attention in markets is centered on the valuations and timing of a number of highly anticipated public listings and late-stage private financings expected to move later this year. These transactions have the potential to absorb large amounts of capital and to influence sentiment across sectors, particularly technology and aerospace.
Anthropic raises a headline-grabbing Series H
In one of the most notable private financings, Anthropic said it raised $65 billion in a Series H round that produced a post-money valuation of $965 billion. The round was led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks, and Sequoia Capital, with co-leads including Capital Group, Coatue, D1 Capital Partners, GIC, ICONIQ, and XN.
Anthropic's Chief Financial Officer, Krishna Rao, said the company’s run-rate revenue crossed $47 billion earlier this month. Company commentary accompanying the funding announcement said the capital will be used to advance research into safety and interpretability, to expand compute capacity to keep pace with demand for its Claude model, and to scale product offerings and partnerships.
Recently announced capacity expansions include an agreement with Amazon for up to five gigawatts of new compute capacity, arrangements with Google and Broadcom for five gigawatts of next-generation TPU capacity, and an agreement with SpaceX to access GPU capacity in Colossus 1 and Colossus 2. Anthropic's Claude large-language model is available on Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure, with AWS identified as Anthropic’s primary cloud provider and training partner.
SpaceX IPO plans and target valuation
Separately, reports said that SpaceX is angling for a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in an upcoming initial public offering, lower than the firm's earlier internal ambitions but still potentially large enough to rank among the biggest public listings in history. The reports indicate SpaceX is seeking to raise as much as $75 billion in the offering, with a formal investor roadshow possibly beginning as soon as June 4 and pricing potentially occurring by June 11.
Those reporting details add that SpaceX had previously aimed for a valuation above $2 trillion but revised its target downward after consultations with advisers and potential investors. The final valuation and the size of any IPO would depend on investor demand throughout the marketing process, meaning both figures could still shift if market reception differs from current expectations.
What markets are watching next
Traders and strategists will closely monitor any formal confirmation of the ceasefire extension and its subsequent approval process, developments around shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, oil price behavior into the end of the week, and additional details from Anthropic and SpaceX as they finalize financing and listing plans. Market reaction could vary across asset classes: oil and sovereign bond yields may move more sharply if diplomatic progress is formalized, while equity benchmarks could respond to incoming earnings, inflation readings, and the ultimate size and timing of the anticipated large-cap listings.
Key points
- U.S. equity futures were largely flat early Friday as reports emerged that the U.S. and Iran agreed to a 60-day ceasefire extension pending presidential approval, a development that could ease oil market stress.
- Brent and WTI futures fell modestly, putting oil on track for its biggest weekly drop since early April, though prices remain elevated relative to pre-conflict levels.
- Anthropic completed a $65 billion Series H at a $965 billion post-money valuation and disclosed expanded compute partnerships, while SpaceX is reported to be targeting at least a $1.8 trillion IPO valuation and may seek to raise up to $75 billion.
Risks and uncertainties
- Ceasefire approval is pending presidential sign-off, creating uncertainty about whether the reported 60-day truce extension will take effect - this affects shipping and energy markets most directly.
- Oil prices, though retreating this week, have previously exceeded $100 a barrel and remain elevated relative to pre-conflict levels; any renewed restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz could reverse the recent decline and feed into broader inflation risks.
- The final size and valuation of large public offerings, including the reported SpaceX IPO target, remain contingent on investor demand during marketing, so planned proceeds and valuations could be altered before pricing.
End of report