Economy June 3, 2026 09:12 AM

IAEA Warns Iran Nuclear Risk Has Risen Since U.S.-Israel Strikes

Restricted IAEA file flags increased proliferation concern after inspections fell and sensitive uranium stockpiles went unverified

By Avery Klein

The International Atomic Energy Agency says the likelihood that Iran could divert nuclear material toward weapons development has grown since U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025. A restricted 119-page IAEA document circulated in Vienna warns the agency can no longer verify significant quantities of enriched uranium after inspections were curtailed following a 12-day conflict. The gap in monitoring and the agency's exclusion from recent negotiations complicate efforts to secure and account for the material.

IAEA Warns Iran Nuclear Risk Has Risen Since U.S.-Israel Strikes

Key Points

  • IAEA restricted 119-page document warns it cannot verify a large amount of high-enriched uranium in Iran and says this raises a proliferation concern - impacts defense, energy, and geopolitics sectors.
  • Weekly inspections of near-bomb-grade uranium stopped after U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025, and overall inspections fell by more than half last year - impacts international monitoring and compliance enforcement.
  • Monitors have not returned to damaged sites at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz where 440.9 kg and 8,599.6 kg of lower enriched material were last observed - impacts nuclear fuel cycle oversight and regional security assessments.

The International Atomic Energy Agency has raised alarms that the risk of undeclared military use of nuclear material in Iran has increased following U.S. and Israeli military strikes in June 2025, according to a confidential IAEA document circulated in Vienna.


Key findings from the agency's restricted report

The 119-page restricted document, shared with member states, says the agency "can't draw any conclusion regarding this nuclear material." It adds: "This gives rise to a proliferation concern as this nuclear material, which the agency was not able to verify, includes a large amount of high-enriched uranium."

IAEA monitoring of a stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium had been carried out on a weekly basis prior to the air assault that sparked a 12-day war. Those weekly inspections ceased after the strikes, and the report cautions the longer material remains outside agency verification, the greater the risk of diversion to non-peaceful purposes.


Inspections and sites affected

Inspectors' access fell sharply after Iran imposed new restrictions in the wake of the 12-day conflict. The report says inspections dropped by more than half last year. Monitors have not returned to certain damaged facilities, including Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz, where Iran's previously observed holdings included 440.9 kilograms and 8,599.6 kilograms of lower enriched material.


U.S. position and diplomatic complications

The White House maintains that Iran's nuclear program has been destroyed but has continued to seek negotiated avenues to obtain access to the uranium. President Donald Trump has proposed options such as exporting the material from Iran or rendering it inert under IAEA supervision within the country.

Some officials have expressed concern that recent U.S. negotiation rounds have proceeded without the IAEA's participation. They warn this exclusion could introduce new risks and create expectations that are not grounded in verifiable safeguards.


IAEA response and upcoming board meeting

IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi emphasized the agency's limited role in the talks in comments to Al Jazeera, saying, "We are not a party to this negotiation. We participated until the last round which ended in February." He added, "Something that is not verifiable will lead to a bad agreement."

The IAEA's board meeting is scheduled to start on June 8 in Vienna. The U.S. and Israel carried out attacks on Iran less than 24 hours after the agency's Feb. 27 report suggested activity near sites that were later bombed. The strikes last June came a day after the IAEA's board had censured Iran for restricting inspectors' access.


What the document makes clear

The restricted IAEA report underlines a narrowing window for verifiable oversight of sensitive nuclear material in Iran. With weekly inspections halted, monitors absent from key facilities, and diplomatic discussions moving forward without the agency at the table, the document frames a scenario in which the agency cannot confirm the status of material that includes significant quantities of highly enriched uranium.

That inability to verify creates the core proliferation concern outlined in the report and sets the stage for contentious discussions at the upcoming IAEA board meeting in Vienna.

Risks

  • Material remaining outside IAEA monitoring increases the risk it could be repurposed for non-peaceful uses - this uncertainty affects defense and global security-sensitive markets.
  • Negotiations excluding the IAEA may produce agreements that lack verifiable safeguards, potentially leading to poor outcomes - this uncertainty could influence diplomatic risk assessments and related market responses.
  • Damaged sites remaining uninspected create a verification gap over significant quantities of enriched uranium, leaving open proliferation and intelligence assessment risks - this affects sectors reliant on stability in the Middle East, including energy markets.

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