European labour authorities have flagged a significant labour-market risk driven by higher energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Labour Commissioner Roxana Minzatu said during a news conference on Wednesday that as many as 1.3 million jobs could be jeopardised this year, with the exposure concentrated in energy-intensive industries.
The European Commission's internal estimates identify the automotive sector as the most vulnerable, with potential layoffs reaching 600,000 positions. Other manufacturing and transport-related segments are also expected to register losses, though on a smaller scale.
Specifically, the Commission's breakdown indicates combined job cuts in construction, metals, chemicals and transport could total 56,000. Battery-related projects account for 85,000 roles at risk, and solar manufacturing faces potential losses of 58,852 positions. The steel sector may see an additional 4,500 job reductions that are linked to low-carbon measures.
Beyond direct employment impacts, the Commission highlights household-level pressures. Low-income households are likely to need to allocate an extra 1.4% of their income to cover transport fuel expenses as prices rise.
These projected losses are situated against the scale of EU employment: manufacturing currently provides roughly 30 million jobs across the bloc, while the services sector employs close to 87 million people. The Commission's figures point to a concentrated shock affecting particular industrial clusters rather than a uniform contraction across all sectors.
Minzatu emphasised the link between the energy-price surge and the delicate position of energy-intensive firms. The risk assessment focuses on vulnerabilities within production chains that rely heavily on affordable energy inputs, and on segments where labour is a sizeable component of operating cost.
The Commission's analysis sets out precise counts for potential job exposure in a range of sectors, underscoring a differentiated pattern: very large potential losses in the automotive space, substantial exposure in battery and solar manufacturing projects, and smaller but material impacts in construction, metals, chemicals, transport and steel.
While the headline estimate - up to 1.3 million jobs at risk - captures attention, the Commission's sector-level detail provides a picture of where policymakers and market participants may focus mitigation efforts if energy prices remain elevated.
Contextual note: The employment figures and sector breakdowns above reflect the Commission's estimates as presented during the news conference and do not represent policy proposals or enacted measures.