BRUSSELS - The European Commission warned on Wednesday that a sharp rise in energy prices attributed to the U.S.-Iran conflict could threaten up to 1.3 million jobs across the bloc this year, with energy-intensive industries most at risk.
Labour Commissioner Roxana Minzatu delivered the estimate at a news conference, stressing the concentration of potential job losses in sectors that consume large amounts of energy. "Due to the war in the Middle East, up to 1.3 million jobs are at risk and we are talking about jobs in energy-intensive industry, particularly," Minzatu said.
The Commission's sector-by-sector breakdown included the following estimates:
- Automotive: Up to 600,000 jobs could be lost, making it the single largest source of potential layoffs in the Commission's assessment.
- Construction, metals, chemicals, transport: Combined losses in these sectors could total 56,000 jobs.
- Battery projects: Some 85,000 jobs are considered at risk.
- Solar manufacturing: The Commission estimated 58,852 jobs could be affected.
- Steel: Around 4,500 jobs could be lost due to pressures related to low-carbon measures.
The Commission also highlighted the potential burden on households, noting that low-income families could be forced to spend an additional 1.4% of their income on transport fuel as a result of higher energy prices.
To provide context for the scale of the risk, the Commission noted that the EU manufacturing sector employs roughly 30 million people, while services account for almost 87 million jobs.
The Commission's estimates focus on immediate exposure to energy-price pressures and do not present policy prescriptions in the remarks reported at the news conference. The figures give a snapshot of how concentrated energy-cost shocks could translate into labor-market disruptions across several parts of the European economy.
Key data points repeated from the Commission's briefing:
- Up to 1.3 million jobs at risk overall.
- Up to 600,000 potential automotive sector layoffs.
- 56,000 combined losses in construction, metals, chemicals and transport.
- 85,000 jobs at risk in battery projects; 58,852 in solar manufacturing; 4,500 in steel.
- Low-income households may face a 1.4% increase in income spent on transport fuel.
- EU employment scale: about 30 million in manufacturing and nearly 87 million in services.