Alexander Saverys, chief executive of Belgian tanker operator CMB.Tech, said on Tuesday that the market remains divided on whether reopening the Strait of Hormuz would ultimately lift or depress tanker freight rates. The company has experienced a pronounced upswing in earnings as the regional disruption tightened available shipping capacity and pushed spot freight and older vessel prices higher.
Saverys described one prevalent line of thinking that reopening the strait would set off a restocking wave. Under that scenario, demand for sea-borne crude would temporarily surge, overwhelming the pool of available tankers and sending freight rates higher. That view sits alongside CMB.Tech's own recent results; the firm reported that its core profit for the first quarter tripled as market disruption supported stronger freight rates and elevated resale values for older ships.
Yet Saverys urged caution about the opposite possibility. He said markets may be underestimating how slowly oil exports from the Middle East might ramp back up and may not be fully accounting for the number of vessels that could promptly re-enter service. If exports recover gradually while a backlog of ships becomes available, the resulting increase in supply could outpace demand and exert downward pressure on rates.
He also highlighted an existing reallocation of freight tonnage toward the Atlantic basin. Ships that had been transiting the Gulf have repositioned to carry cargoes from the U.S., Brazil and West Africa, a shift that is already weighing on rates. While freight has eased from recent peaks, Saverys noted that vessels were still earning in the range of $80,000 to $120,000 per day.
Another unresolved factor, he said, is the durability of robust U.S. export volumes. Those flows have been supported by substantial releases from oil reserves, but how long such elevated export levels can continue remains an open question.
CMB.Tech, which changed its name from Euronav in October 2024, has been a beneficiary of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The restriction curtailed available shipping tonnage, bolstered spot freight rates and contributed to higher sale prices for older vessels.
Implications
- The direction of freight rates will depend on the balance between restocking-driven demand and the pace at which exports and idle vessels return to the market.
- Repositioning of tonnage toward Atlantic loadings is already exerting downward pressure on rates despite still-elevated daily earnings.
- Uncertainty about the longevity of strong U.S. exports adds another variable to rate trajectories.