Key finding: A Brookings Institution report found that the surge in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activity across major U.S. cities last year corresponded with an estimated 668,000 job losses and weakened local economic activity.
The study focused on 86 cities that experienced the largest increases in ICE arrests during the first half of 2025. Researchers estimated that each additional arrest in these cities was associated with roughly 13 lost jobs, a multiplier that produced the headline estimate of about 668,000 fewer jobs overall.
Scope of the disruption: The analysis concluded that the economic impact extended beyond undocumented workers to affect businesses, household spending, and employment across multiple industries. Construction and other sectors that typically employ larger shares of undocumented workers recorded some of the steepest employment declines. The report also identified job losses in areas such as arts and entertainment, where immigrant employment is relatively limited.
According to the authors, businesses cut staffing levels and curtailed activity as enforcement operations became more visible and concerns spread through local communities. The report estimated that between 51,000 and 297,000 of the lost positions would have been held by U.S.-born workers, noting that firms dependent in part on immigrant labor often scaled back operations after experiencing labor shortages, which in turn affected native-born employees.
Consumer spending effects: The Brookings researchers pointed to weaker consumer spending in neighborhoods with high shares of foreign-born residents. They cited separate research showing that spending in Los Angeles neighborhoods with large foreign-born populations fell by as much as 25% in the two months following the public announcement of a local ICE enforcement campaign.
Data and methodology: The study combined ICE arrest records compiled by the Deportation Data Project with employment estimates from labor market analytics firm Lightcast and federal payroll records. Using these sources, researchers linked increases in arrests to local labor-market outcomes in the selected cities.
Context and responses: Brookings researchers described the administration’s approach as distinct from previous enforcement efforts because of its scale and visibility, producing what they termed a broader "chilling effect" on local economies. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Political framing: The findings arrive amid ongoing arguments from the Trump administration that stricter immigration enforcement protects American workers, while critics contend that large-scale enforcement actions can disrupt labor markets and economic activity in affected communities.
Note on limits: The report’s estimates derive from the data sources and methodology specified by the authors; where the article’s original material noted ranges or estimates, those ranges are retained rather than narrowed.