Top brokerage strategists are forecasting further gains for the S&P 500 in 2026, even as a prolonged Middle East conflict continues to unsettle global energy supplies and exert upward pressure on inflation.
Analysts at major investment banks say the market’s advance should be supported by continued momentum in artificial intelligence-related investment and by solid corporate earnings. At the same time, firms caution that a sustained period of higher oil prices could elevate the risk of a recession.
Goldman Sachs was the most recent firm to lift its S&P 500 target, joining other brokerages that have issued bullish projections for the index next year.
Forecasts for the S&P 500 in 2026
| Brokerage | 2026 S&P 500 index target |
|---|---|
| BofA Global Research | 7,100 |
| Societe Generale | 7,300 |
| UBS Global Research | 7,500 |
| Jefferies | 7,500 |
| Canaccord Genuity | 7,500 |
| BNP Paribas | 7,500 |
| J.P. Morgan | 7,600 |
| Barclays | 7,650 |
| HSBC | 7,650 |
| Citigroup | 7,700 |
| Evercore ISI | 7,750 |
| Seaport Research Partners | 7,800 |
| RBC Capital Markets | 7,900 |
| UBS Global Wealth Management | 7,900 |
| Deutsche Bank | 8,000 |
| Goldman Sachs | 8,000 |
| Morgan Stanley | 8,000 |
| Oppenheimer Asset Management | 8,100 |
| Wells Fargo Investment | 7,400-7,600 |
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2026
Brokerages provided differing outlooks for real GDP growth across global and major regional economies in 2026. The following are the forecasts given by the firms:
| Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | EURO AREA | UK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Goldman Sachs | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| Morgan Stanley | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| Barclays | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Wells Fargo | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| UBS Global Wealth | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| Deutsche Bank | 3.3% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| HSBC | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% |
| J.P. Morgan | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| BofA Global Research | 3.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| UBS Global Research | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
Notes: UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group. Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank.
Context and considerations
Across the brokerage forecasts there is a common thread: strategists expect AI-related investment and healthy corporate profits to provide a tailwind for U.S. equities in 2026. That optimism is tempered by the influence of the ongoing Middle East conflict on energy supply chains, which the firms say is contributing to higher inflation in the near term.
Several brokerages have raised their S&P 500 targets in recent weeks, and Goldman Sachs is noted as the latest to do so. Nonetheless, analysts flag that if oil prices remain elevated for an extended period, the risk of a recession could increase.
Summary
Major brokerages project that the S&P 500 will climb in 2026, supported by AI momentum and strong earnings, while warning that persistent oil price pressures linked to the Middle East conflict could heighten recession risk. Growth forecasts for global and regional economies vary across firms.