Australian residential property prices are poised to record their weakest annual advance since 2022 as higher interest rates and ongoing cost-of-living pressures limit demand from many prospective first-time purchasers, according to a Reuters poll of property market analysts.
The poll, conducted between May 21 and June 4, shows a median expectation of 1.0% growth in home values for the year, with individual forecasts ranging from a 5.0% decline to a 7.0% increase. Analysts in the survey also projected a 2.1% rise in home prices for 2027.
That outlook represents a marked slowdown from roughly 10% growth seen in 2025, even after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 75 basis points so far this year in an effort to reign in persistent inflation. The higher borrowing costs, combined with elevated price levels, have reduced affordability for many households. By comparison, home values fell by more than 5% in 2022 when the RBA began an aggressive cycle of rate hikes.
Affordability remains a central concern despite the more subdued pace of price growth. Median home values in the poll sit at about A$940,000, equivalent to roughly $670,126 at the exchange rate used in the survey, which puts median prices at nearly eight times average household income. Analysts said that elevated inflation and the higher cost of borrowing are expected to continue to weigh on household budgets and dampen housing demand.
“There was only a short period where interest rates dropped last year and they’ve been increased three times this year. But that’s happened at the same time other factors have also affected the housing market, including reduced consumer confidence because of concerns about rising inflation and the cost of living, and then there was the Iran war,” said Michael Yardney, founder of Metropole, a real estate advisory firm. “This does affect the housing market because people don’t make big decisions like buying a new home, moving house, or buying an investment property when they’re not confident.”
Price trajectories are expected to diverge considerably across Australia’s largest cities. Median forecasts from the poll show Sydney and Melbourne lagging, with projected declines of 2% to 3% this year. By contrast, Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth are forecast to outperform, with gains in the range of roughly 6% to 11% projected for 2026.
The federal government has moved to reform elements of the tax system that affect property investors, replacing the existing 50% capital gains tax discount with an inflation-indexed approach and limiting negative gearing. Some economists in the poll warned that these changes could constrain rental supply, put upward pressure on rents and exacerbate affordability challenges, particularly for first-time buyers.
Corresponding rental dynamics in the poll point to urban rents rising by about 4% to 6% over the coming year, an upward revision from a March Reuters poll that showed a 3% to 5% forecast. Those expected rent increases would outpace the 4.2% headline inflation rate recorded in April.
Economists surveyed were split on whether affordability for first-time buyers will improve or worsen over the next year, with five respondents anticipating some improvement and four expecting deterioration. The poll also noted a similar pattern across the Tasman in New Zealand, where home prices are seen as broadly flat this year as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise interest rates next quarter.
Exchange rate used in the poll: $1 = 1.4027 Australian dollars.