Commodities July 5, 2026 09:52 PM

Gold Edges Higher as Softer Dollar Reflects Cooling Rate-Hike Expectations

Bullion gains modestly after rebound from recent lows as markets reassess Federal Reserve rate outlook

By Leila Farooq
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Gold climbed in Asian trading as a weaker dollar and reduced market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes this year supported the metal. Spot gold traded higher after recovering from eight-month lows last week, while futures posted larger gains. Market attention remains on U.S. inflation and labor data, and the Fed's June meeting minutes due this week.

Gold Edges Higher as Softer Dollar Reflects Cooling Rate-Hike Expectations
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Key Points

  • Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,186.80/oz by 21:28 ET (01:28 GMT) and gold futures climbed 1.8% to $4,199.75/oz.
  • Markets trimmed expectations of Fed rate hikes after a weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, helping weaken the dollar and support bullion.
  • Other precious metals also gained: spot silver was up 0.4% to $62.7350/oz and spot platinum rose 1.1% to $1,661.03/oz.

Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Monday, helped by a softer U.S. dollar as investors trimmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Spot gold increased 0.3% to $4,186.80 an ounce by 21:28 ET (01:28 GMT), while gold futures jumped 1.8% to $4,199.75/oz. The metal continued to recover after last week’s rebound from eight-month lows, and the dollar slipped to around two-week lows, supporting bullion’s advance.

Market moves followed a weak nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday, which prompted traders to sharply pare back bets that the Fed will have sufficient room to lift rates later this year. The labor market print helped shift expectations toward fewer or smaller rate increases, weighing on the dollar and boosting demand for non-yielding assets such as gold.

Policy drivers

Inflation and the labor market remain the central bank’s primary considerations when setting monetary policy. The article highlights that sticky U.S. inflation is widely expected to keep the Fed inclined toward a hawkish stance in the coming months. Higher interest rates are generally negative for gold because they raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets versus government debt - a key reason bullion has underperformed relative to earlier peaks this year.

The minutes from the Fed’s June meeting are due this week and are expected to provide additional insight into the likely path for interest rates, which market participants will watch closely for guidance on future policy moves.

Broader price pressures and inflation signals

Falling oil prices provided some relief to concerns about persistent inflation. Nonetheless, markets remain cautious about potential inflationary pressures from the artificial intelligence sector, and rising global temperatures were also noted as a factor that could contribute to higher price pressures.

Other precious metals

Precious metals broadly tracked gold’s gains on Monday. Spot silver rose 0.4% to $62.7350/oz, while spot platinum advanced 1.1% to $1,661.03/oz.

Although bullion posted a recovery last week, overall upside in gold has been limited by the prospect that sticky inflation will keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish track, constraining larger and more sustained gains for the yellow metal.

Risks

  • Sticky U.S. inflation could keep the Federal Reserve leaning hawkish, limiting gains for gold and other non-yielding assets - this affects precious metals and bond markets.
  • Uncertainty in labor market data means market expectations for rate hikes can shift rapidly, influencing currency and commodities prices.
  • Ongoing inflationary concerns from sectors such as artificial intelligence and broader climate-driven price pressures could sustain upside inflation risks, constraining bullion's rally.

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