Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
4,090 total articles
European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel said rising oil prices and supply snarls tied to the Iran war have increased the risk of higher inflation in the euro area. She indicated that the bank may need to raise interest rates, potentially as soon as June, to prevent energy-driven price shocks from triggering broader second-round effects. …
A Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Thursday found that U.S. households remain broadly unconcerned about overall inflation in April, even as economic data point to increasing price pressures. The one-year inflation expectation rose slightly to 3.6%, while three- and five-year expectations stayed at 3.1% and 3.0%, respectively. Expect…
The Bank of England's governing court has approved an interim dividend payment to the UK government, marking the first such transfer since 2020. Governor Andrew Bailey concluded the central bank has built sufficient reserves to support an annual dividend. The decision accompanies broader cost-cutting measures designed to fund a modernization progra…
The Swiss National Bank raised the value of its US stock holdings by roughly 3% in the first quarter, bringing the total to $173.8 billion as of March 30. This marks the central bank's highest level in four years and its second-largest on record. The SNB holds positions in more than 2,300 US-listed firms, with a significant share of its foreign-cur…
The independent council of tax experts has reduced its projection for federal tax receipts across 2026-2030 by 87.5 billion euros, tightening an already stressed fiscal outlook. The downgrade reflects weaker near-term revenues for 2024 and 2027 and comes as the government faces rising defence commitments, a marked energy price shock and increasing …
A classified CIA report delivered to U.S. policymakers this week finds that Iran could endure the current U.S. naval blockade for at least three to four months. The assessment, which diverges from public statements portraying rapid collapse, notes that Tehran retains large shares of its pre-war missile and launcher inventories and has been able to …
Nineteen World Trade Organization members, led by the United States and including Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia, have agreed among themselves not to impose duties on cross-border electronic transmissions for an unspecified period. The move follows a failure to renew the long-standing multilateral moratorium after objections from Brazi…
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack told a public radio audience she expects the central bank to keep its policy rate on hold for an extended period amid what she described as considerable economic uncertainty. Hammack dissented at the Fed's most recent meeting over language suggesting the next move would be a cut, and she warn…
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's April Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a modest rise in year-ahead inflation expectations to 3.6% from 3.4% in March, while three- and five-year outlooks held at 3.1% and 3.0%. Households also cut their gas price expectations and reported mixed personal finance views, even as official inflation measures …
The U.S. Treasury Department plans to impose sanctions on Iraq's deputy oil minister, Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly, accusing him of facilitating the shipment of Iraqi crude that was blended with Iranian oil in violation of an international embargo. Treasury alleges Maarij authorized the trucking of several million dollars' worth of oil each day to a smugg…
Hong Kong’s de facto central bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, has reorganized five executive director posts as part of a planned leadership succession. The internal memo sets out an immediate June 22 change for the Exchange Fund Investment Office chief risk role and additional reassignment steps to take effect in July, including moves affect…
A senior official at Hungary's central bank said the institution will use the June consumer price index report as its next substantive opportunity to assess economic effects. He pointed to better risk premia and a firmer forint as factors that ease inflation management, and stressed a cautious policy stance that avoids knee-jerk reactions to short-…
The Czech National Bank voted to hold its two-week repo rate at 3.50%, a level it has maintained for the past year following a 350-basis-point easing cycle that concluded in May 2025. Policymakers cited rising inflationary pressure stemming from a disruption to a major oil and gas shipping route in the Middle East, but said there is no immediate ca…
Draft European Union guidance indicates the fallout from the Iran war has not produced conditions comparable to the COVID-19 crisis and does not justify targeted emergency measures for tourism or airlines. The document notes there are no EU-wide jet fuel shortages, reiterates passenger reimbursement and re-routing rights, and outlines narrow except…
Mexico's headline inflation fell to 4.45% in April from 4.59% in March, coming in marginally below economist forecasts. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, eased to 4.26% from 4.45% and was slightly under expectations. The central bank, Banxico, is due to announce its policy move Thursday after an unexpected rate cut in March, while m…
Official figures released for April show Mexico’s headline inflation declined to 4.45% year-on-year from 4.59% in March, while the core index slipped to 4.26%. The readings were slightly below market expectations and arrive ahead of a scheduled central bank policy announcement after an unexpected rate cut in March.
Swiss consumer prices climbed 0.6% year-on-year in April, up from 0.3% in March and the highest rate since December 2024, driven mainly by a 17% increase in petroleum product prices. On a monthly basis, overall prices rose 0.3% as petrol, diesel and heating oil became more expensive. Air travel and international holiday costs rose, while hotel stay…
A former central bank official who took part in market interventions a decade ago says Japanese authorities likely entered currency markets over the Golden Week holidays to curb a potential sharp decline in the yen if it fell below the psychologically charged 160-per-dollar mark. Officials appear to have acted to back up public comments and to coun…
Wolfe Research analyst Stephanie Roth estimates that about half of the near 40 basis point increase in 10-year Treasury yields since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict is linked to that shock, with the rest stemming from stronger growth and the unwinding of an earlier rally. If an agreement is reached, Wolfe Research expects only a portion of the …
Brazilian federal police carried out a search and seizure operation on Senator Ciro Nogueira on Thursday, part of a broadening investigation into the now-defunct Banco Master, according to a Supreme Court decision. The probe, which has already led to the arrest of Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro and the bank's liquidation last November, now inclu…
A poll of 27 foreign exchange analysts conducted May 1-6 finds the Canadian dollar may relinquish some recent gains against the U.S. dollar over the next three months but could resume appreciation over a year if geopolitical pressure linked to the Middle East and U.S. tariff uncertainty subsides. Median forecasts show a small weakening in three mon…
U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures traded close to record levels on Thursday as oil prices fell further on optimism that a limited, temporary U.S.-Iran agreement could reduce disruptions to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The move higher in equity futures has been driven largely by gains in technology and artificial intelligence-related stoc…
Moody's Ratings says South Africa’s government debt will level off in 2026 and then slowly fall, supported by improved revenue collection, fiscal restraint and easing funding costs. The agency keeps South Africa at Ba2 with a stable outlook but warns that debt above 80% of GDP limits the government's ability to absorb shocks.
Compensation consultancy Johnson Associates forecasts that Wall Street bonuses for 2026 will be broadly flat to modestly higher, constrained by geopolitical pressures stemming from the Iran war and disruptions in the private credit market. While advisory and trading businesses could outperform, buoyed by M&A and IPO momentum, areas tied to illiquid…
Norway’s central bank increased its key policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25% on Thursday. Governor Ida Wolden Bache said inflation has been too high and above target for several years; the bank's preferred underlying inflation measure was 3.0% in March. Norges Bank highlighted significant uncertainty about future economic developments and…
