Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
4,096 total articles
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said the immediate financial fallout from the joint U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has been contained so far, citing limited direct bank exposures and strong capital and liquidity positions. He warned, however, that a wider spread or longer duration of the conflict and a prolonged energy shock c…
The OECD reports that the recent escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has removed an anticipated upgrade to global growth and risks driving up inflation, as near-stoppage of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz pushes energy prices higher. Global growth is now forecast to slow to 2.9% in 2026 before a modest pickup to 3.0% in 2027, whi…
The OECD's interim update cuts the United Kingdom's 2026 growth estimate by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7%, the largest downgrade among major economies in the report, while raising the 2026 inflation forecast to 4.0%. The body cites higher energy prices tied to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and planned fiscal tightening as central factors keeping gro…
A retired senior U.S. naval officer told a client event that the current confrontation with Iran could last far longer than early forecasts, highlighting implications for U.S. strategic focus, defense spending and procurement priorities. He pointed to long-standing diplomatic severance, regional entrenchment, potential supplemental funding requests…
The Trump administration is moving to assert greater control over the Federal Reserve's regulatory and supervisory functions, seeking influence over rule-writing and examiner guidance that followed the 2008 crisis. Officials and former staff describe efforts by the White House and Treasury to press the Fed on submissions for White House review, acc…
U.S. stock index futures fell Thursday as investors remained cautious over mixed messages about a possible de-escalation in the Middle East. Comments from U.S. and Iranian officials left markets unsure whether a diplomatic path will restore safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The oil price surge has reignited inflation worries, prompting mo…
U.S. equity futures moved lower as market participants digested a flurry of reports about possible negotiations to end the conflict with Iran. Oil traded back above $100 a barrel, underpinning a firmer U.S. dollar and pressuring gold. Separately, Jefferies reported first-quarter losses tied to loans to failed firms, even as investment banking activ…
Seisaku Kameda, the Bank of Japan's former top economist, said the central bank is likely to raise interest rates by June in response to escalating oil prices linked to the Iran war. Kameda argues that the oil shock compounds an environment of steadily rising prices and wages and that prolonged delay in tightening risks allowing inflation to become…
New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli estimated that Wall Street bonus payments climbed 9% to a record $49.2 billion in 2025, lifting the average bonus to $246,900. The securities industry posted profits of $65.1 billion, up more than 30%, while preliminary employment figures show a slight decline in headcount to 198,200 from 201,500 in 2024. The…
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said the euro area banking system has limited direct exposure to the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran and remains well capitalised and liquid. However, he warned that interconnected vulnerabilities across markets could produce systemic stress if the conflict drives a sharp repricing of risk, particul…
European stocks retreated on March 26 as investors weighed the prospect of an ECB rate increase in April and continued uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. The STOXX 600 declined 0.6% to 583.8 by 0809 GMT, while short-term bond yields climbed and interest-rate futures priced a greater than 68% chance of a hike. Elevated crude prices and confl…
China's banking regulator has discussed relaxing long-standing limits on major shareholders in commercial banks, people with direct knowledge said, as lenders confront slowing economic activity and property-sector strain. The proposed changes would permit certain investors to increase sizeable stakes in additional banks, subject to regulator approv…
ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said the European Central Bank could decide to raise interest rates at its April 29-30 meeting if the war in the Middle East triggers a broader inflation surge. Nagel, who leads Germany's Bundesbank, said officials will evaluate incoming data on the conflict's economic impact, energy-driven price pressures and any sign…
The Bank of Japan has launched a new consumer price gauge that removes specified institutional factors and energy-related interventions, reporting a 2.2% year-on-year rise for core CPI excluding those special factors in February. The move, disclosed alongside plans to update staff estimates of the neutral interest rate, is intended to sharpen commu…
Markets opened the day tentative after conflicting statements from Iran and the U.S. about a possible ceasefire in the Gulf. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical channel for oil and LNG, has prompted energy shortages and higher prices, pressuring equities and bonds and driving demand for the dollar as a haven.
Japan is reportedly exploring an unconventional tactic to support the yen by taking short positions in oil futures using its foreign-exchange reserves. The proposal, driven by concern that rising crude prices and the Middle East conflict are amplifying dollar demand, is under internal discussion but faces skepticism from analysts and some officials…
Trade ministers from across the globe gathered in Yaounde on March 26 for a four-day negotiation aimed at reshaping the World Trade Organization. Delegates arrive without a clear, commonly agreed roadmap and amid warnings that failure to reach concrete outcomes could fragment global trade governance. Key flashpoints include the future of the morato…
FEMA said it is restarting a grant program it had canceled last year and is now accepting applications, following court rulings that found the termination unlawful and ordered further steps to restore the program. The agency announced $1 billion in funding for states, local governments, territories and Tribal Nations to support pre-disaster mitigat…
President Donald Trump has told associates he wants to avoid a prolonged war with Iran and is pressing advisers to limit hostilities to a four-to-six week window, privately saying he believes the conflict is nearing its final phase. The White House is also coordinating a mid-May summit with China that takes this timeframe into account. Fighting bet…
Asian stock markets traded unevenly while the dollar stayed firm as investors reacted cautiously to shifting developments in the Middle East. Iran said it would consider a U.S. 15-point ceasefire proposal, a move that followed earlier dismissal by Iranian officials. The widening conflict has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed Bren…
A new Brookings Institution paper by Stanford economist Darrell Duffie lays out a multi-step approach the Federal Reserve could use to reduce its balance sheet. The plan focuses on lowering the financial sector's appetite for reserves through regulatory adjustments, changes to the Fed's payment system, tiered interest on reserves and more frequent …
Japan’s services producer price index advanced 2.7% in February from a year earlier, up from January’s 2.6% gain, with labour-intensive sectors such as hotels and construction showing price increases. The data supports the Bank of Japan’s emphasis on wage- and services-led inflation as the criterion for further rate hikes after the end of its prolo…
The U.S. dollar maintained strength in early Asian trade as investors looked for signs that the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran might cool. Traders also trimmed the odds of another Federal Reserve rate increase this year after a spike in energy prices prompted fresh scrutiny of inflation paths. Key currency pairs and market indicators showed limite…
A senior Reserve Bank of Australia official warned that an extended Middle East conflict would increase economic harm and that policymakers must prevent a spike in energy prices from shifting longer-term inflation expectations. The RBA has lifted rates to 4.1% amid persistent inflation and the disruption to global oil trade that pushed petrol to re…
An anti-vaccine organization tied to Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has filed a petition asking HHS to broaden the Vaccine Injury Table from 47 entries to include over 300 injuries it says are linked to vaccines. The petition relies on government-commissioned reports that describe adverse event associations, and it includes a 60-day notice …
