Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
4,096 total articles
Global equity funds recorded their biggest weekly net inflow in nearly 2-1/2 months in the week through March 25, driven by hopes of a temporary easing in Middle East tensions after a White House decision to delay strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Net purchases were concentrated in U.S. and Asian equity funds, while European equity funds sa…
UBS economists have updated their outlook for European Central Bank policy, forecasting two 25 basis point hikes that would raise the deposit rate to 2.5% - one on June 11 and a second in September. The change follows a more hawkish tone in the ECB's March staff projections, which revised inflation materially higher while trimming GDP growth only m…
U.S. equity futures traded close to unchanged after the White House extended a deadline for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6. President Trump said Tehran requested the delay and that talks are ongoing, but clashes across the Middle East have persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Brent crude rose further w…
A European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey released March 27 shows euro-area households lowered their median inflation expectations for the next 12 months and the following three years to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month, while expectations five years ahead held at 2.3%. The ECB noted that 97% of responses were collected before the st…
The close of the first quarter has left global markets reeling from geopolitically driven shocks. A war involving Iran and a U.S. ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz has coincided with record energy price swings, a steep drawdown in equities, surging input costs and heightened volatility across assets. Investors will now face a dense calendar - fro…
The Bank of England has restructured the Discount Window Facility (DWF) pricing, setting fixed spreads above Bank Rate by collateral tier and lowering charges across the board. The move is intended to make the DWF a more usable, on-demand liquidity option for firms facing short-term settlement gaps, while preserving incentives for prudent liquidity…
European stocks fell on Friday as investors wrestled with uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has raised inflation fears and cast doubt on global growth. The STOXX 600 edged down 0.2% to 579.71 by 0816 GMT, led lower by a 1.4% drop in media shares. Market volatility marked the week, with the benchmark briefly off 10% from its …
Christodoulos Patsalides, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, said the ECB should not hurry to raise interest rates in response to recent energy-driven headline inflation. He argued that the bank's baseline projection - with inflation peaking above 3% in the second quarter and returning to target a year later - still holds. P…
Global markets have been swept by a severe selloff since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, pushing oil above $100 a barrel, driving Treasury yields sharply higher and leaving few traditional safe havens intact. Fund managers, traders and bankers from Shanghai to New York report sleepless nights and frantic portfolio adjustments as t…
On March 27 the Bank of Japan published an updated staff estimate of Japan's natural rate of interest, placing it at roughly -0.9% to +0.5% - a range largely unchanged from the prior -1.0% to +0.5% estimate. The BOJ noted that while the overall range is similar, many individual estimates have in recent months edged higher, reflecting in part a rise…
France's public sector deficit narrowed to 5.1% of GDP in 2025, according to INSEE, an improvement on the previous year and better than the government's latest estimate. The statistics office also reported a rise in the public debt ratio to 115.6% of GDP in 2025. Paris is aiming to reduce the deficit to 5.0% this year and to return to the EU 3% cei…
Equity futures and oil prices showed muted moves after U.S. President delayed planned strikes on Iranian power stations for a further 10 days. Global markets remain on edge as signs of persistent inflation and central-bank pivoting prompt re-priced rate expectations, even as fresh reports of additional U.S. troop deployments to the Middle East incr…
A widening list of Asia-Pacific governments have announced measures to reassure financial markets and shore up liquidity as the extended U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran exacerbates currency weakness and market turbulence. Actions range from large-scale bond buybacks and supplementary budgets to fuel subsidies, central bank reviews and temporary …
A former Bank of Japan executive cautions that the central bank’s next quarterly outlook is likely to highlight the potential for large swings in underlying inflation driven by the Iran war, complicating decisions over the timing and pace of further rate rises. The conflict has pushed up oil prices and disrupted shipping, introducing uncertainty ar…
Asian equities extended a global sell-off as investors reacted to mounting risks from the Middle East. Concerns that the conflict could produce a lengthy energy shock pushed borrowing costs higher, lifted the dollar and pressured risk-sensitive currencies. Oil prices were volatile but showed limited net movement after a sharp overnight rise, while …
The dollar strengthened toward multi-month highs as investors moved to safety amid an intensifying Middle East conflict and inconsistent diplomatic accounts. Expectations for higher-for-longer energy prices lifted the dollar and pushed bond yields up, while risk-sensitive currencies slid. Policymakers' potential tightening and a reported U.S. troop…
The Trump administration announced plans to vacate the Education Department's Lyndon B. Johnson headquarters in Washington, relocating the agency to a smaller office within the capital while the Department of Energy will occupy the LBJ building. Officials described the shift as a cost-saving reorganization as the administration continues steps to r…
Roberto Perli, who oversees implementation of monetary policy at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, indicated that the central bank's large-scale Treasury bill purchases - currently about $40 billion per month - are likely to be scaled back after the April 15 tax-payment date. Perli said the reduction could be gradual to reflect uncertainty arou…
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said a sustained rise in oil and commodity prices tied to the Iran conflict could lift inflation expectations, complicating the Fed's path to easing monetary policy. He urged patience in any rate reductions and expressed concern that recent supervisory changes have weakened banking system resilience.
A surge of retail trading in South Korea has helped lift the KOSPI to extraordinary gains over six months and driven record participation and balances, while recent Middle East conflict and a historic single-day drop have tested investor resolve. Despite volatility, individual investors have increased activity and deposits, motivated by income conc…
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson warned that persistent increases in energy prices could push inflation higher and weigh on consumer and business spending, creating a difficult trade-off for policymakers. Speaking at a Dallas Fed event, Jefferson said the Fed's policy is "appropriately positioned" to support the labor market while inflat…
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook told an audience at the Yale School of Management that the war in Iran has shifted the balance of risks for the Fed’s dual mandate toward inflation. She described the labor market as balanced but fragile, highlighted concerns for young workers in a low hire, low fire environment, and said the Fed is monitoring art…
Global equities, U.S. Treasury yields and precious metals dropped on renewed concerns about Middle East escalation and the inflationary implications of higher energy prices. Oil rose sharply, while weak Treasury auction demand and breaches of key technical levels compounded investor pessimism as the quarter closes.
Brazil's central bank opposes imposing caps on credit-card interest rates, Governor Gabriel Galipolo said, while indicating the bank is looking for other mechanisms to help consumers manage debt. The statement follows President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's directive to his new finance minister to propose alternatives to ease household debt, amid ris…
A New Mexico jury found Meta liable under state consumer protection laws and imposed a $375 million penalty for enabling child sexual exploitation on its platforms. The state is preparing a second, bench-phase of the trial in May that could lead a judge to require changes to how Facebook, Instagram and other Meta apps serve and verify underage user…
