Economy May 7, 2026 03:19 PM

Mexico inflation eases to 4.45% in April, keeping the door open for policy easing

Consumer and core inflation both decelerated in April, setting up a central bank decision later Thursday after a March rate cut

By Avery Klein

Mexico's headline inflation slowed to 4.45% year-on-year in April, down from 4.59% in March and slightly below the median forecast from a Reuters poll. Core inflation declined to 4.26% from 4.45%, also marginally under expectations. The data arrive ahead of a central bank policy announcement later Thursday and follow a 25-basis-point cut in March that left the benchmark rate at 6.75%. Markets anticipate a final 25-basis-point reduction to close the easing cycle that began more than two years ago.

Mexico inflation eases to 4.45% in April, keeping the door open for policy easing

Key Points

  • Headline inflation slowed to 4.45% year-on-year in April, down from 4.59% in March and slightly below the Reuters poll forecast of 4.50%. - Markets and fixed-income sectors are directly impacted by changing rate expectations.
  • Core inflation fell to 4.26% from 4.45% and was marginally below the 4.27% expectation, signaling easing underlying price pressures. - Consumer-focused sectors and nominal wage dynamics could be influenced by core inflation trends.
  • Banxico will announce its policy decision later Thursday after cutting the benchmark rate by 25 basis points in March to 6.75%; markets expect a final 25-basis-point cut to end an easing cycle that began over two years ago. - Banking and lending sectors are sensitive to changes in the benchmark rate.

Mexico's pace of consumer price increases moderated in April, official figures released Thursday showed, offering fresh evidence that inflationary pressures may be cooling.

Headline consumer prices rose 4.45% in the 12 months through April, a slowdown from the 4.59% year-on-year increase recorded in March. That outcome came in slightly below the median forecast from a Reuters poll, which had projected a 4.50% rise.

The central measure of inflation closely watched by policymakers - the core index, which excludes volatile items - also decelerated. Core inflation eased to 4.26% in April from 4.45% in March, a touch under the 4.27% expected by economists surveyed by Reuters.

The release comes ahead of a scheduled monetary policy decision later Thursday by Mexico's central bank, Banxico. Policymakers had reduced the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in March, bringing it to 6.75%.

Market participants have broadly interpreted the recent inflation trajectory as supportive of further easing and expect Banxico to complete the current easing cycle with a final 25-basis-point cut to the benchmark rate. That cycle began more than two years ago and, if concluded as markets expect, would mark the end of a lengthy period of monetary accommodation.

Despite the moderation, inflation remains above the central bank's stated objective of 3%, plus or minus a percentage point. That means year-on-year inflation is still outside the symmetric target range, a factor that will figure into the deliberations at the upcoming policy announcement.


In sum, the April data indicate a slowing trend in both headline and core inflation that may give policymakers room to consider additional easing. However, inflation's position above the target range ensures the decision later Thursday will be scrutinized closely by markets and economic agents alike.

Risks

  • Inflation remains above Banxico's target of 3% plus or minus one percentage point, which could constrain how far or fast policymakers are willing to ease - this affects broader financial market expectations.
  • The central bank's decision later Thursday may differ from market expectations of a final 25-basis-point cut, introducing uncertainty for borrowers, lenders, and investors.
  • Although headline and core inflation have moderated, their levels are still elevated relative to the target range, creating uncertainty about the sustainability of disinflation and the timing of any further policy moves - this could influence interest-rate sensitive sectors.

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