ASML stands to gain more from a surge in orders for its existing Low-NA extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines than from near-term sales of High-NA systems, according to a fresh research note from BofA Securities. The brokerage kept a "Buy" rating on ASML and raised its 12-month price target to
High-NA rollout expected to be gradual
While next-generation High-NA EUV offers material gains in lithographic resolution, the BofA note contends that industry-wide deployment will be slower than many had anticipated. The report highlights technical and design obstacles that will impede rapid adoption, particularly for advanced logic devices that push toward reticle-size dimensions.
Memory chipmakers are singled out as the most likely early adopters. BofA anticipates that firms such as Samsung and SK Hynix could begin integrating High-NA systems in 2028. By contrast, the note suggests Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company may not deploy High-NA tools until roughly 2032 at its A10 node.
Specific integration challenges
The research note identifies several concrete hurdles for High-NA adoption:
- "Stitching" complications stemming from a reduced exposure field size.
- New design constraints imposed by the smaller field and higher precision requirements.
- Integration complexity for very large AI-targeted chips, which can approach the size limits of reticles.
Near-term upside from Low-NA demand
BofA sees the more immediate commercial opportunity in additional shipments of ASMLs existing Low-NA EUV systems. The analysts raised their Low-NA shipment forecasts to 65 units for 2026, 85 units for 2027, and 87 units for 2028, up from prior estimates of 62, 81, and 75 units respectively. The upgrade reflects expected buying from major players such as TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Micron, and SK Hynix as they expand capacity and use more EUV layers for AI processors and high-bandwidth memory.
Upgraded financial outlook
Alongside higher shipment projections, BofA boosted its earnings-per-share estimates for ASML by as much as 14.5% for 2028. The note lists EPS forecasts of
The report also shows revised revenue expectations, with 2028 sales now projected to approach
Analysts' view on growth drivers
BofA argues ASML can sustain robust growth without an accelerated High-NA rollout. The note points to improvements in Low-NA productivity, rising service revenues, and the firm's leading market share in EUV lithography as key pillars supporting revenue and earnings expansion in the medium term.
Given these dynamics, BofAs updated forecasts and reaffirmed Buy recommendation reflect confidence that ASML will capture substantial near-term demand from Low-NA uptake while High-NA adoption unfolds more slowly.