Traders and market experts reviewing exchange data have identified a string of unusually large short trades across multiple oil and fuel derivatives contracts during March and April that together could total up to $7 billion. These positions were entered shortly before a series of public announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump concerning Iran, according to the analysis.
The trades included short positions in a range of derivatives - specifically crude, diesel and gasoline futures - traded on two primary venues for global oil benchmarks: the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Both exchanges declined to comment on the activity. A source familiar with the matter said the CME is conducting an investigation into the trades.
Traders first flagged the unusual activity on March 23, when a cluster of short trades was executed minutes before President Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure. The announcement was followed by a drop in oil prices. A similar pattern was observed on April 7, when short positions appeared just before Mr. Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran - a development that preceded a decline in benchmark ICE Brent futures of as much as 15%.
Two additional instances of comparable trading activity were identified on April 17, when Iranian officials and President Trump discussed reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and on April 21, when the President extended the ceasefire. On those occasions, short positions again surfaced in the minutes leading up to the public statements.
Initial calculations put the value of the short bets executed on the four days cited - March 23, April 7, April 17 and April 21 - at roughly $2.6 billion. The broader tally compiled from exchange data and market analysis for March and April, which covers a wider set of contracts and trading venues, reaches as high as $7 billion.
The scale of these trades surpasses earlier reported figures, and that discrepancy has already produced an internal warning within the U.S. administration advising staff not to use nonpublic information for financial advantage. A person familiar with the situation said the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating, though the commission has not publicly confirmed a probe.
Requests for comment were not immediately answered by the U.S. Justice Department, the CFTC, or the White House. It remains unclear who placed the trades or whether the orders originated in the United States or abroad. Market participants and regulators continue to review exchange records and the timing of the trades relative to the presidential announcements.
Timeline of reported trading events
- March 23 - Short trades executed minutes before an announced delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure; oil prices fell.
- April 7 - Similar trades preceded a President Trump announcement of a ceasefire with Iran; ICE Brent futures fell by as much as 15%.
- April 17 - Trades occurred prior to public comments about reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- April 21 - Short positions appeared before the extension of the ceasefire.
Market observers emphasize that while the trades were concentrated on front-month contracts for the two global crude benchmarks - Brent and West Texas Intermediate - and extended across refined fuel futures, definitive attribution of the orders is not available at this time.