European natural gas prices moved lower on Thursday amid renewed attention on diplomatic activity between the United States and Iran aimed at re-opening negotiations to end the war.
By 08:04 ET (12:04 GMT), the benchmark Dutch front-month contract at the TTF hub had declined 0.2% to 43.82 euros per megawatt hour, based on ICE data. The British front-month contract also eased, down 0.4% to 107.09 pence per therm.
Diplomatic developments
Reports indicate Washington and Tehran have been working with mediators on a one-page framework intended to once again restart talks over a lasting peace deal. According to the Wall Street Journal, the discussions are expected to begin next week in Pakistan, which has frequently played a mediating role between the two capitals.
The paper said the process would then extend roughly a month, with the goal of resolving outstanding disputes that include Iran's nuclear ambitions and requests for relief from sanctions. However, the reports underscored that significant disagreements remain on key issues such as nuclear enrichment and inspections.
Statements from Washington
President Donald Trump was quoted as saying at the White House that the U.S. had "won" the war and that talks with Tehran had been "very good" over the last 24 hours. Earlier on the same day, he posted on social media that the U.S. operation against Iran - which he said was launched jointly with Israel in late February - would be over if Tehran "agrees to give what has been agreed to," though he did not provide further detail. He also warned that renewed attacks could follow if no accord is reached.
Tehran's response and timeline
Messages from Iran were described as mixed. The Iranian foreign minister reportedly said that officials were reviewing a U.S. proposal and planned to convey their views to Pakistan. Yet other media reports cited an Iranian official calling the U.S. peace plan an American "wish list." CNN reported that Iran was expected to deliver its response to mediators by Thursday.
Market implications and analyst view
At an industry event, Gergely Molnar, a gas analyst with the International Energy Agency, said the war has so far led to the loss of about 120 billion cubic meters of global liquefied natural gas supply between 2026 and 2030. Molnar added that tighter market conditions could "persist for longer than previously expected."
Traders' cautious positioning reflected the delicate balance between diplomatic optimism and lingering uncertainties on the specifics of any accord. The modest declines in front-month contracts came as market participants weighed the prospect of resumed negotiations against unresolved differences over verifiable nuclear measures and sanctions relief.
What to watch next
- Responses from Iranian officials to mediators, including any formal reply expected by Thursday.
- Further statements from U.S. officials clarifying terms referenced in social media posts and White House remarks.
- Market reaction to ongoing reports about the monthlong negotiation process and remaining disagreements over enrichment and inspections.