Futures linked to Canada’s main stock index ticked higher Thursday as investors parsed signs that the U.S. and Iran may be moving closer to a negotiated settlement in their months-long conflict.
At 08:40 ET (12:40 GMT) the S&P/TSX 60 index standard futures contract was up 9 points, equivalent to a 0.5% gain.
Markets entered the session on the back foot from Wednesday’s advance on the Toronto Stock Exchange, where the S&P/TSX composite climbed 1.2% to close at 33,981.82. That finish marked the index’s highest close since April 20 and reflected investor optimism that progress toward a conclusion of the war in the Middle East could be under way.
Sector performance on Wednesday displayed a split reaction to the news flow. Energy stocks declined as crude prices slid, while gains in financials and metal mining shares helped lift the composite index overall.
Among Canadian companies in the spotlight ahead of the session, oil and gas producer Canadian Natural Resources drew attention after reporting first-quarter results that beat profit expectations, attributed by the company to increased production. Natural gas solutions provider Enerflex posted higher quarterly revenue, and tissue maker Cascades recorded sales that landed a touch below market expectations.
U.S. equity futures were modestly positive following strong gains the prior session. At 08:46 ET (12:46 GMT), S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures had each gained 0.1%, while Dow futures were up 0.3%.
On Wednesday, both the benchmark S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite reached fresh record highs. Those advances were supported by reporting that Washington and Tehran were reportedly nearing a deal to end their longer-than-two-month conflict, an outcome market participants interpreted as lowering the risk of a renewed escalation.
Chipmakers were notable contributors to the U.S. advance. Advanced Micro Devices posted strong returns that signaled continued demand tied to artificial intelligence-related spending, and AI server specialist Super Micro Computer saw its shares surge by more than 24% after providing a positive quarterly revenue outlook. Market observers described a renewed burst of investor interest in AI-related names.
"A touch of AI-mania has returned as a theme," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. "It’s not without fundamental justification, with S&P 500 earnings growth nearing 30% for this quarter, led by the big tech names. There are bubbling concerns about concentration risk. However, valuations aren’t as stretched as they were last year, implying the market isn’t quite at irrational exuberance levels yet."
Diplomatic developments and uncertainty
Reports indicate that the United States and Iran have been working with mediators on a one-page framework intended to restart talks on a lasting peace agreement. According to media reports cited in the market coverage, discussions are slated to resume next week in Pakistan, with the preliminary framework designed to launch a monthlong process to address disputes over Iran’s nuclear program and possible sanctions relief. The same reporting also emphasized that important disagreements persist on issues such as nuclear enrichment and inspection arrangements.
President Donald Trump characterized recent interactions with Tehran in upbeat terms, saying at the White House that the U.S. had "won" the war and that talks with Iran had been "very good" over the prior 24 hours. Earlier comments on social media from President Trump indicated that the joint U.S.-Israeli operation launched in late February would end if Iran "agrees to give what has been agreed to," though he did not expand on specifics, and he warned of renewed strikes should an accord fail to materialize.
Iran’s response has been mixed in tone. Iran’s foreign minister has said the country’s officials are reviewing a U.S. proposal and will relay their position through Pakistan, which has played a mediating role. Other Iranian officials, according to reporting, have described the U.S. proposals more skeptically, characterizing them as an American wish list. News outlets report Tehran is expected to deliver its answer to mediators by Thursday.
Market participants appeared to take the evolving diplomatic signals as evidence that both sides are committed to avoiding a renewed escalation, a perception that supported a risk-on move into equities on Wednesday.
Energy, metals and safe-haven moves
Oil prices fell below the $100-a-barrel level as traders assessed the potential for relief in the region. Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, were last quoted down 3.4% at $97.78 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures retreated 3.9% to $91.42 a barrel. Prices remain well above levels seen prior to the conflict, however, after energy markets sharply re-rated earlier in the episode due to an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for global crude flows.
Higher energy costs have had palpable effects on U.S. gasoline prices, which have climbed over $4.50 a gallon - peaks not witnessed since the pandemic-era highs in 2022. President Trump suggested he expected oil might have reached even loftier prices, saying he was surprised prices had not moved higher and that he had anticipated levels of "$200, $250" per barrel; he added that even at such levels the war would have been "worth it," comments that reflect the political and economic complexity tied to energy market moves.
Gold, in contrast, pushed higher for a third straight session and reached a two-week high. The yellow metal rose more than 3% on Wednesday, marking its largest one-day move since late March, a response credited to the drop in oil prices and a resulting moderation in inflation fears. Slower inflation expectations pushed U.S. Treasury yields lower and supported bullion, while a softer U.S. dollar further enhanced demand for gold from holders of other currencies.
Earnings and individual stock moves
Corporate earnings continued to influence market action. Coach-owner Tapestry raised its full-year forecast for the third time in 2026, citing resilient demand among younger customer cohorts; the stock rallied in premarket U.S. trading. Food delivery platform DoorDash jumped more than 10% after providing a second-quarter marketplace gross order value outlook that topped analysts’ estimates.
Kenvue said it would not issue forward guidance at this time because of an impending transaction with Kimberly-Clark; its shares were slightly lower ahead of the U.S. open. Household appliance maker Whirlpool fell sharply after the company cut its full-year revenue forecast.
What this means for markets and sectors
Investor positioning reflects an interplay of geopolitical risk and corporate fundamentals. Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have tempered energy-driven inflationary concerns, which in turn has eased pressure on bond yields and helped cyclically sensitive sectors such as financials and industrials. At the same time, technology-related names tied to the artificial intelligence cycle remain firm contributors to equity gains, while traditional energy names face downward pressure from a retreat in crude.
Market participants will be watching the diplomatic process closely, along with upcoming corporate reports and data that could influence the tone of risk appetite across asset classes.