Goldman Sachs forecasts that nonfarm payrolls increased by 75,000 in April, a touch higher than the consensus estimate of 65,000, according to the firm's latest projection. The bank points to solid performances among the big data indicators it monitors for April as a supporting factor for its outlook.
On the public employment side, Goldman Sachs expects an overall reduction of 5,000 government payroll positions. That net decline reflects a projected drop of 10,000 jobs at the federal level, which the firm says would be partly offset by an estimated 5,000 gain in state and local government roles.
Unlike recent months when external factors had more influence, Goldman Sachs expects that weather-related effects and worker strikes will have had minimal influence on the April employment numbers.
Turning to labor market metrics, the bank projects the unemployment rate to be unchanged on a rounded basis at 4.3% for April. Goldman Sachs notes the margin for rounding down to 4.2% is relatively narrow given the unrounded March figure of 4.26%.
Wage growth, as measured by average hourly earnings, is estimated by Goldman Sachs to have increased by 0.3% month-over-month in April. The forecast attributes this gain to neutral calendar effects for the month.
This forecast encapsulates the firm's read of high-frequency indicators and component-level expectations for payrolls, government employment, the unemployment rate, and hourly earnings for April. It signals modest net job growth in the private sector in April while anticipating a small pullback in overall government payrolls and stable headline unemployment when rounded.