Moody's Ratings confirmed the Government of Abu Dhabi's long-term issuer ratings at Aa2 on both local and foreign currency obligations and kept the outlook stable. The agency also reaffirmed the emirate's foreign currency senior unsecured debt rating at Aa2 and maintained short-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings at P-1.
The rating action reflects what Moody's calls Abu Dhabi's exceptionally large financial asset base, which substantially exceeds total debt across both the central government and the wider public sector. In its assessment, the agency also cited the emirate's significant hydrocarbon reserves and a very high per capita income of $119,295 in 2025 as foundations supporting a durable net creditor position.
At the same time, Moody's underlined important credit challenges. The emirate remains highly reliant on hydrocarbons, and regional geopolitical tensions have elevated risks. The agency specifically noted the ongoing conflict in the Middle East that has resulted in an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz since early March, creating significant disruption to maritime trade flows.
Moody's central scenario assumes a prolonged interruption of trade transiting the Strait of Hormuz, provided there is no further major damage to Abu Dhabi's critical energy infrastructure. The stable outlook reflects the expectation that Abu Dhabi's credit profile will remain resilient in that scenario, supported by two factors the agency highlighted: an established alternative export route via the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline and very large fiscal buffers. Moody's recorded that fiscal buffers exceeded 300% of GDP in 2025.
The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline is already transporting 1.8 million barrels per day of crude oil, allowing hydrocarbon exports to reach roughly 50% of their pre-conflict levels. That alternative route is central to Moody's view that exports can continue even while trade through the Strait is constrained.
On macroeconomic projections, Moody's expects real GDP to contract by about 9.5% in 2026. The agency attributes that decline largely to a 23% fall in hydrocarbon output and a modest contraction in non-oil activity, driven by weaker confidence and a reduction in tourism. For 2027, Moody's projects a strong rebound with growth around 17% as trade flows through the Strait normalize and oil production gradually rises following the UAE's departure from OPEC in May 2026.
Regarding fiscal outcomes, Moody's anticipates oil prices averaging $90–110 per barrel in 2026 and expects Abu Dhabi to record a small budget surplus despite higher spending levels. The agency indicated that the combination of elevated fiscal buffers and alternative export capacity underpins its stable rating view.
Moody's also set out scenarios that could alter the rating. An upgrade would be considered if Abu Dhabi materially strengthened its resilience to carbon transition risks through deeper economic and fiscal diversification. Conversely, downward pressure on the rating would likely arise if the regional conflict escalated to a level that materially threatened the emirate's ability to produce and export oil for a prolonged period.
Implications for markets and sectors
- Hydrocarbon sector: Short-term output and export disruptions are expected to materially affect hydrocarbon production and trade flows.
- Fiscal and sovereign financing: Very large fiscal buffers and an expected small budget surplus in 2026 support sovereign credit resilience.
- Non-oil sectors, including tourism: Moody's anticipates a slight contraction in non-oil activity in 2026 amid weaker confidence and reduced tourism flows.