June 26 - Mark Zuckerberg has instructed members of Meta's leadership to investigate possible partnerships with two well-known prediction-market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, as his company advances work on its own competing application.
According to three employees with knowledge of the matter, the initiative comes as Meta develops an app called Arena that would allow users to make forecasts on future events. Unlike Polymarket and Kalshi, which accept real-money wagers, Arena is being designed around a video-game-like points system rather than cash bets.
Meta and Kalshi did not immediately respond to requests for comment, while Polymarket declined to comment when contacted. The report behind these details could not be independently verified.
Prediction markets gained traction during the 2024 U.S. presidential election and have since expanded into a market where participants can take positions on a range of outcomes, spanning monetary policy decisions to sports results. The sector has drawn attention not only for its growth but also for scrutiny over trading activity: well-timed trades that preceded major policy announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump have reportedly yielded substantial profits for unidentified traders.
People involved in the project say Arena is being oriented toward users aged 18 to 34 and that Meta hopes to attract at least 100 million monthly active "predictors" if the app reaches scale. Arena is currently undergoing internal testing and company leadership has not ruled out the possibility that it may never be released to the public.
Plans described by employees include a future integration of Arena features into Meta's core social products, namely Facebook and Messenger, should the company move forward with a public launch. Earlier in the week it was reported that Zuckerberg assembled a small internal group to build a smartphone application along the lines of existing prediction platforms.
The company portrays Arena as materially different from existing real-money platforms by centering engagement around points. Beyond that difference, executives expect to leverage Meta's distribution reach if the product is commercialized, though internal testing continues and no release date has been provided.
Context and next steps
Meta appears to be studying both partnership opportunities and the merits of launching its own standalone product. The internal trials will likely shape whether Arena remains an experimental project, becomes a separate consumer app, or later merges into Meta's broader services.