Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade finished higher on Monday after a session marked by volatility as traders positioned ahead of a scheduled U.S. Department of Agriculture report set for Wednesday.
New-crop November soybean futures closed up 3-1/4 cents at $11.79-1/2 per bushel, reflecting cautious buying into the week as market participants awaited the USDA's supply and demand update.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters are forecasting that the USDA will lower its projections for U.S. soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 and 2026-27 marketing years in the forthcoming report. That anticipated revision is a central consideration for trading strategies this week.
Beyond the supply and demand numbers, traders are monitoring weather developments after a period of severe July conditions raised concerns about U.S. corn yields. Recent rainfall, however, has eased some of those worries, with the precipitation helping to preserve crop prospects.
Separately, the USDA's weekly crop condition report, due Monday, is expected to leave the national condition ratings for both corn and soybeans unchanged, according to a Reuters poll of 10 analysts. On average, analysts expect the agency to hold the soybean condition rating at 63% rated good to excellent for a second consecutive week, reflecting the support provided by recent rains and cooler temperatures across the Midwest in July.
Market participants note that August is a crucial month for soybean yield formation because rainfall during this period supports pod filling and final yield potential. That seasonal sensitivity contributes to the market's attention on both weather trends and official condition numbers.
On related contracts, CBOT September soymeal fell $3.40 to close at $305.50 per short ton, while July soyoil gained 1.29 cents to finish at 69.53 cents per pound.
Summary
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures rose modestly on Monday as traders prepared for the USDA's supply and demand report due Wednesday. Analysts expect the agency to lower U.S. soybean ending stock forecasts for 2025-26 and 2026-27. Recent rains have eased some crop concerns borne from severe July weather, and the USDA is expected to maintain current weekly condition ratings.
Key points
- Soybean futures closed up 3-1/4 cents at $11.79-1/2 per bushel as traders positioned ahead of the USDA report - sectors affected: agriculture, commodities trading.
- Reuters analysts expect reduced U.S. soybean ending stock forecasts for 2025-26 and 2026-27 in the Wednesday USDA report - sectors affected: agricultural supply chain, commodity markets.
- The USDA is expected to hold soybean condition ratings at 63% good to excellent for a second week, according to a Reuters poll of 10 analysts - sectors affected: crop insurance, grain processing.
Risks and uncertainties
- Weather variability in August remains a risk for final soybean yields, since rainfall is needed to support pod filling - impacts crop growers and downstream processors.
- Potential downward revisions to USDA ending stocks for 2025-26 and 2026-27 could alter market balances and price expectations - impacts commodity traders and agribusiness planners.
- Weekly USDA condition ratings may influence near-term sentiment; any unexpected change could affect price volatility - impacts futures markets and risk management strategies.
This report presents the market developments and expectations as stated by analysts and recent trading outcomes. It does not add new data beyond the figures and forecasts referenced.