Morgan Stanley has adjusted its stance on Global-e Online, downgrading the cross-border e-commerce platform from Overweight to Equal-weight while simultaneously increasing its price target to $44 from $37. The bank said the market now more fully reflects Global-e's sustainable growth profile and competitive position, prompting the rating change even as the firm advanced its valuation horizon to 2028 and folded in the recently announced Passport acquisition.
Analysts at the bank continued to view the stock as inexpensive relative to its growth potential but indicated that further multiple expansion will likely require a clear acceleration in Managed Markets and greater transparency on take rates. Morgan Stanley also wants more reporting detail on enterprise merchant composition and Global-e's domestic e-commerce operations to better evaluate the medium-term path for service-fee take rates.
On near-term volumes, Morgan Stanley expects second-quarter gross merchandise volume to come in about 1% to 2% above the top end of guidance. The bank attributed that outperformance to several temporary tailwinds, including strength at Alo, merchant promotional activity, the World Cup and Champions League, and favorable foreign-exchange movements. Some of those factors are expected to wane, and Morgan Stanley forecasts third-quarter results broadly in line with consensus as those transitory drivers fade.
The firm built Passport into its projections, assuming the acquired business contributes roughly $25 million of revenue per quarter in the third and fourth quarters of 2026. Morgan Stanley judges the acquisition to be neutral to slightly positive for adjusted EBITDA and said it raised its gross profit and adjusted EBITDA estimates for 2027 and 2028 by about 2% as a result.
In concrete forecast changes, Morgan Stanley lifted its 2026 revenue estimate for Global-e to $1.32 billion from $1.27 billion and its 2027 revenue forecast to $1.77 billion from $1.64 billion. The bank also increased its 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $286.4 million from a prior $281 million.
Looking ahead, Morgan Stanley identified the company's August 12 earnings report as the next major catalyst for the stock. The analysts noted that a material ramp in Managed Markets into 2027 would be a key factor that could strengthen a bullish case for the shares.
Investors seeking a clearer line of sight on margin dynamics and service-fee trends will be watching for additional disclosure on take rates, enterprise merchant mix, and domestic e-commerce operations. Until the company provides that level of detail or demonstrates a significant Managed Markets acceleration, the bank signaled that valuation expansion may remain constrained despite the boosted price target.
Context for markets and sectors
- Cross-border e-commerce platforms and related payments and logistics providers are directly implicated by the firm's outlook and requests for clearer take-rate disclosure.
- Merchants and marketing-driven volume surges tied to major sporting events can create temporary revenue uplifts that may not persist into subsequent quarters.