Overview
Wolfe Research estimates that the emergence of orchestration and agentic central processing units will expand the CPU total addressable market (TAM) by approximately 30% through calendar year 2028. The firm says constrained capacity at TSMC will be a more important determinant of which companies capture share than raw performance improvements during this timeframe.
Orchestration CPUs and GPU/XPU dynamics
The research house expects orchestration CPUs to accelerate in 2028 as the CPU-to-GPU ratio reaches parity - a 1:1 relationship - for Rubin Ultra deployments. Despite this growth, Wolfe anticipates the orchestration CPU segment will remain predominantly tied to GPU and XPU suppliers rather than opening broadly to incumbent CPU vendors. The firm derives its orchestration CPU unit forecasts from projected GPU and XPU shipments in its proprietary Wolfe Accelerator Model.
Agentic CPUs and architecture share assumptions
In the agentic CPU market, Wolfe Research anticipates ARM-based designs will secure between 50% and 75% of share, citing their advantage in performance per watt and multi-threaded workloads versus x86's relative strength in single-thread performance. Under a scenario in which ARM captures 50% of the agentic CPU segment, Wolfe calculates ARM's share of the overall CPU market would rise to about 45% by 2028, up from roughly 15% at present.
Company-level projections
Wolfe identifies Advanced Micro Devices as the company best positioned to benefit relative to its current size and valuation. The firm models AMD server CPU revenue growing to $44 billion in 2028 from $17 billion in 2026. Wolfe estimates that such revenue expansion could translate into roughly $7 in incremental earnings per share against 2025 levels, taking AMD's 2028 earnings power to a range of $25 to $30.
For Intel, Wolfe expects revenue to expand but market share to slip across several segments. The firm points to potential orchestration share losses as Google moves to Axion, along with headwinds in both traditional and agentic CPU categories. Wolfe's model places Intel server CPU revenue at $41.5 billion in 2028, up from $22.6 billion in 2026, and indicates this could add approximately $1 in incremental EPS versus 2025, premised on a 30% operating margin on the incremental revenue.
Nvidia is projected to ship over 4 million CPUs in the current year, including around 1.3 million Vera agentic CPUs, with most Vera volumes concentrated in the fourth quarter. Wolfe models incremental agentic CPU revenue for Nvidia of $6.6 billion in 2026, $14 billion in 2027, and $24.6 billion in 2028, using an average selling price near $5,000 per server CPU. Even with Nvidia taking the largest unit share, the firm expects the EPS contribution from CPU sales to be modest relative to Nvidia's existing accelerator revenue base, estimating a roughly $0.50 incremental EPS impact versus 2025.
Arm Holdings is projected to benefit from growth across orchestration CPUs, rising agentic CPU share, and sales of its own silicon. Under Wolfe's base case of 50% ARM share in the agentic segment by 2028, the firm models $1.5 billion in royalty revenue in 2027 and $2.5 billion in 2028, plus approximately $2 billion in Arm silicon revenue in 2028. Wolfe translates datacenter CPU royalties into about $1.25 in incremental EPS and silicon into about $0.30 versus 2025, yielding near $4.50 in 2028 earnings power, while noting current valuation appears expensive.
Implications for wafer demand and equipment
Wolfe's CPU growth scenario corresponds to roughly 20% wafer growth for wafer fabrication equipment over the next two years. The firm still expects GPUs and XPUs to be the leading drivers of incremental leading-edge wafer demand despite the CPU expansion.
Concluding observations
The Wolfe analysis links the near-term evolution of CPU demand directly to developments in AI workloads and the suppliers of accelerators. The firm emphasizes that foundry capacity constraints at TSMC will play a key role in who captures share as orchestration and agentic CPUs scale through 2028, and it provides a set of revenue and earnings pathways for major participants under those capacity- and share-based assumptions.