U.S. stock futures were trading unevenly on Tuesday as market participants prepared for a pivotal inflation release and the arrival of second-quarter earnings from the nation’s largest banks, while fresh U.S.-Iran tensions sent crude prices higher and revived worries about rising consumer costs.
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup were scheduled to open the reporting season for second-quarter results on Tuesday, with investors watching the early corporate data for clues about the broader state of American businesses. The upcoming earnings will be an early test of a rally that has propelled the benchmark S&P 500 roughly 10% higher so far this year.
At 8:30 a.m. ET, the June consumer price index report was due. Forecasts in the market expected inflation to have eased in June, but analysts and traders noted that developments in the Middle East could quickly change that picture by lifting energy prices.
"Gasoline prices are already back above June levels, meaning the next inflation report will heat up again. So today’s CPI figures may matter less than the re-escalating geopolitical tensions," said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
The CPI release was set to be followed by testimony at 10 a.m. ET from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who was scheduled to deliver the central bank’s semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. Investors also digested hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said on Monday that the central bank may need to raise interest rates "in the near term" if inflation remains well above its 2% target.
Markets reflected growing odds of a near-term rate move. Traders priced in a 43% probability of a quarter-point rate increase at the Fed’s July 29 meeting, up from 34% a day earlier, based on CME’s FedWatch tool.
Heightened geopolitical risk contributed to market caution. The reporting period included a third consecutive night of U.S. military strikes against Iran and investors were considering the possibility of a 20% fee on cargo ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Those factors pushed oil futures to their highest levels in about four weeks.
In early electronic trading at 05:13 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were lower by 118 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 E-minis were down about 1 point, or 0.01%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis were trading higher by 142.75 points, or 0.48%.
Nasdaq futures recovered some ground after the tech-heavy index fell 1.6% on Monday. Semiconductor stocks, which had suffered sharp declines in the prior session, steadied in premarket trading. The iShares Semiconductor ETF rose 2.4% in premarket trade.
Overall, futures movement ahead of the CPI report and bank earnings reflected a mix of relief that inflation might be easing and concern that geopolitical developments, energy price gains and evolving Fed guidance could quickly offset any welcome softness in the data.
Context for market participants
- Major banks start the second-quarter earnings season with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reporting first, a key moment for equity sentiment.
- June CPI data and the Fed Chair’s semi-annual testimony to Congress are focal points for interest rate expectations.
- Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities have boosted oil prices, which could counteract easing inflation and influence Fed policy considerations.