Goldman Sachs compiled weekly rail traffic figures reveal a noticeable uptick in US Class I carload growth in week 20. Total carloads increased 5% year-over-year, an acceleration from the 4.2% expansion recorded in week 19.
Intermodal traffic contributed materially to the improvement, rising 8.3% year-over-year in week 20 versus 6.9% in the prior week. Volumes excluding intermodal freight were essentially flat, up 1.8% compared with 1.7% in week 19.
At the company level, CSX (NASDAQ:CSX) registered the strongest intermodal growth in week 20, posting an 11.7% year-over-year gain. Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) followed with intermodal growth of 8.4% and 5.8%, respectively. CSX also led on ex-intermodal volumes, with carloads up 2.9% year-over-year. Norfolk Southern reported ex-intermodal growth of 2.7%, while Union Pacific showed a 0.5% increase.
Canadian rail traffic showed divergent patterns. Total Canadian carload growth accelerated to 3.0% year-over-year in week 20, up from 1.8% in week 19. Canadian National Railway (TSE:CNI) posted overall carload growth of 4.1% in week 20, improving from 3.1% the week before. CNI's ex-intermodal carload growth climbed to 7.9% from 5.6%, while its intermodal carload growth moved lower to -1.3% from -0.2%.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (TSE:CP) recorded total carload growth of 1.7% year-over-year in week 20, compared with 0.1% in week 19. CP's intermodal volumes increased to 4.0% from 2.3%, and its ex-intermodal carload growth turned positive at 0.3%, up from -1.3%.
Looking at the quarter-to-date picture, the three major U.S. Class I railroads highlighted in the weekly release - Union Pacific, Norfolk Southern and CSX - are tracking total carload growth of 3.1% year-over-year. Intermodal carloads for these carriers are up 3.2% for the quarter to date, while ex-intermodal volumes are up 3.0%.
By contrast, the combined Canadian pair of Canadian Pacific and Canadian National is tracking slightly negative for the quarter to date, with total carloads down 0.1% year-over-year. Within that combined figure, intermodal carloads are down 2.5% while ex-intermodal carloads are up 1.6%.
Market quotations shown alongside the weekly traffic snapshot indicated modest intraday gains for the rail names referenced: CSX +1.49%, UNP +1.64%, NSC +1.43%, CNI +1.37% and CP +2.08%.
Key points
- US Class I carloads accelerated to 5.0% year-over-year in week 20, with intermodal volumes up 8.3% and ex-intermodal volumes roughly steady at 1.8%.
- CSX led weekly intermodal and ex-intermodal gains, followed by Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern; these trends affect freight and logistics sectors tied to containerized and merchandise traffic.
- Canadian rail growth accelerated overall to 3.0% in week 20 but showed weakening intermodal performance, creating a mixed outlook for cross-border and domestic Canadian freight flows.
Risks and uncertainties
- Canadian intermodal carloads declined week-over-week (CNI intermodal -1.3% in week 20), presenting downside risk to carriers dependent on container traffic and cross-border flows.
- The combined Canadian carriers are tracking slightly negative quarter-to-date (total carloads -0.1%), which introduces uncertainty for rail-linked sectors in Canada such as bulk exports and domestic manufacturing logistics.
- Quarter-to-date US gains are modestly concentrated in intermodal volumes; a reversal in container traffic trends could dampen overall rail growth for the US Class I group.