Overview
Options data compiled by Bloomberg suggest that shares of Ulta Beauty Inc. (NYSE: ULTA) may experience an 8.5% move when the company announces its upcoming earnings. Ulta is scheduled to release results on June 2 after the market close, and the implied move reflected in option prices offers one measure of market expectations for post-announcement volatility.
Recent earnings and implied vs. actual moves
Looking back across the most recent eight earnings announcements, the company’s stock has moved by more than the options-implied magnitude in five instances. The following list summarizes the implied moves and the actual price changes recorded around each announcement:
- March 12 - Implied move: 6.7%; Actual change: decline of 19.0%.
- December 4, 2025 - Implied move: 8.3%; Actual change: gain of 12.4%.
- August 28, 2025 - Implied move: 7.0%; Actual change: decline of 4.6%.
- May 29, 2025 - Implied move: 6.6%; Actual change: gain of 16.5%.
- March 13, 2025 - Implied move: 7.2%; Actual change: gain of 1.7%.
- December 5, 2024 - Implied move: 6.4%; Actual change: gain of 14.1%.
- August 29, 2024 - Implied move: 7.2%; Actual change: decline of 7.4%.
- May 30, 2024 - Implied move: 7.5%; Actual change: gain of 4.4%.
These outcomes illustrate that option-implied moves have sometimes underestimated actual post-earnings volatility for Ulta shares, with both larger-than-expected declines and rallies recorded in recent history.
Context for market participants
For traders and investors, the implied 8.5% move provides a baseline for expected volatility priced into options. The historical pattern of outsized moves in five of the last eight earnings events highlights that realized moves can diverge materially from implied figures, producing outcomes on both the upside and downside.
Ulta’s earnings release is set for June 2 after the market close; market participants will observe how actual results compare with expectations already embedded in option prices.