UBS has revised upward its outlook for the global security and safety market, citing persistent cyber threats, the emergence and use of artificial intelligence, and tighter regulation as core factors that should sustain investment in cybersecurity over the coming years.
The bank now estimates the addressable market will reach $974 billion in 2026, versus its prior forecast, and expand to $1.19 trillion by 2029. That trajectory corresponds to an annual growth rate of about 7% through 2029, with cybersecurity remaining the largest single contributor to market growth.
UBS notes that cybersecurity spending has shown resilience even where enterprise IT budgets have slowed, as organisations continue to prioritise protection against increasingly sophisticated attacks. The report highlights generative AI as a two-sided factor: it both elevates risk and spurs additional spending. UBS points to AI-enabled attacks - including phishing campaigns and malicious uses of large language models - as drivers of demand for more advanced security solutions.
On specific market sizing, UBS expects the global cybersecurity market to grow 12.5% this year to reach $240 billion. The bank references a projection from Gartner that places the cybersecurity market at $323 billion by 2029. UBS also expects security software to lead spending increases, reflecting a shift by companies toward platform-based security offerings.
The bank anticipates that generative AI will raise cybersecurity's share of enterprise IT budgets as companies invest to counter novel threats such as prompt injection, data leakage, and AI-powered malware. These risk vectors are identified as reasons organisations will allocate more resources to defence measures and advanced tooling.
Beyond software and network security, UBS expects steady growth across a range of adjacent areas. Testing, inspection, and certification services; life science tools; and commercial and residential security markets are forecast to expand, supported by factors such as urbanisation, stricter regulatory regimes, and broader uptake of smart security technologies.
UBS also introduced a section on quantum computing in its report, noting that the technology could eventually alter the cybersecurity landscape. The bank projects the quantum computing market to grow from roughly $1.8 billion in 2026 to about $20 billion by 2030. At the same time, UBS says practical quantum threats to current encryption standards are likely years away.
Overall, the report describes cybersecurity as one of the more defensive segments within technology, supported by recurring demand and spending that has proved resilient through economic cycles. That defensive characteristic, combined with the structural drivers identified - AI-related risk, regulation, and the shift toward platform-based security software - underpins UBS's more optimistic market sizing for security and safety over the medium term.
Markets and sectors affected:
- Cybersecurity and security software - primary growth driver.
- Testing, inspection, and certification services - steady expansion expected.
- Life science tools and commercial/residential security - supported by urbanisation and smart tech adoption.